897
FXUS64 KMAF 080730
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK BEFORE A
FRONT ARRIVES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-ZERO THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EVIDENT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
SKIES ARE CLEAR, AND WINDS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED BACK TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AREAWIDE. THESE FACTORS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES TICK UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
HELP LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND CLOSER
TO 40F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TUESDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS TUESDAY END UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S,
WHICH IS ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A ROLLER
COASTER RIDE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED (THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL). AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY COOLS 3-6 DEGREES RELATIVE TO TUESDAY'S HIGHS FOR MANY AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOR
MOST AS WINDS VEER BACK TO THE WEST, CREATING A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME, POTENTIALLY SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY. IF THIS WERE
TO VERIFY, TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NBM NOW CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MANY BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE
DATA. FOR EXAMPLE, THE LREF 25TH PERCENTILE SHOWS HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON SATURDAY WHILE THE 75TH PERCENTILE SHOWS
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WITH THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AT THIS TIME. WHAT ENDS UP BECOMING REALITY ALL
REALLY DEPENDS ON FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS IN THE DATA AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES AS NEEDED.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
TERMINALS OVER LEA COUNTY INTO PERMIAN BASIN 16Z-23Z BEFORE WINDS
AGAIN DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 35 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 66 33 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 37 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 69 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 57 37 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 63 33 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 63 29 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 36 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 63 36 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 64 31 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94
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