238
FXUS64 KMAF 120455
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1055 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
A STRONGER COLD FRONT (BRIEFLY) BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE, PROMOTING WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S PLACING THESE HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TONIGHT, LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO
UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. BY TOMORROW MORNING, A WEAK FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THE FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO REMAIN SIMILAR (SLIGHTLY
COOLER) AS TODAY'S TEMPERATURES. THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THIS TREND
CONTINUES HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
A PLEASANT SATURDAY IS ON TAP BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
DURING THE NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH AND A RESULTANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING BREEZY, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MORNING LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S (40S IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES). THE
STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE FOUND IN THE GUADALUPE/ DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE 40/50S, ACCOMPANIED BY
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO RETURN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT DRIFTING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS WORKS IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVERHEAD TO DRIVE MONDAY'S HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. AN
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LEE TROUGH THAT STEERS WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT, AS A MIX OF 70S AND 80S ARE IN THE FORECAST. AS OF NOW, THIS
PARTICULAR FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. NOT A DROP OF
RAIN IS THERE TO BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR REMAINS AT ALL TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS REACH AROUND
10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 39 69 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 44 72 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 44 78 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 47 71 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 44 64 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 42 70 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 37 71 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 42 70 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 43 70 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 39 71 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93
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