747
FXUS64 KMAF 140506
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT, BRINGING BRISK WINDS,
CLOUDY SKIES, AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
QUITE THE ROLLER COASTER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, AND AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF, LEAVING WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INCREASING THICKNESSES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING JUST OVER 15 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
UNFORTUNATELY, A COLD FRONT IS SET TO INTRUDE UPON THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, W/THE LATEST NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS PUTTING FROPA AT KMAF
AROUND 02Z. THIS IS A FAST-MOVING FRONT, AND SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE RIO GRANDE BY 12Z. CAMS DEVELOP -SHRA ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT
REACHES THE BIG BEND AREA/LOWER TRANS PECOS, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT, IF ANYTHING, IT'LL BE PATCHY DRIZZLE.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ~ 3-5 F ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE HEADING NORTH AS CAA CONTINUES UNDER A
HEALTHY DECK OF STRATUS. MODELS TAKE HIGHS DOWN TO 10-15 F BELOW
NORMAL, W/BRISK POST-FRONTAL WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FORTUNATELY, SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK TO RETURN FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT,
ARRESTING CAA. DESPITE THIS, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COLD, W/OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S, IF NOT A SKOSH
COLDER.
THE ONLY UPSIDE IS THAT THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLDEST PART OF THIS
WEEK'S FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
A WARMING TREND ENSUES MONDAY AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEK. AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND A SURFACE LOW FORMS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE.
THESE WORK TO STEER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT SEND HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERTURES JUMP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BECOME DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ATTEMPTS TO DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO THE DAY BEFORE, UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SHALL BE TOO
FAR NORTH TO REALLY PUSH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
MAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S, THOUGH 70S AND 80S ARE FORECAST FOR
EVERYONE ELSE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE JET STREAM LOOKING TO
SPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING BRINGING IN STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
10-11Z, ESPECIALLY AT MAF, HOB, AND INK. LOW CLOUD DECKS FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT WHERE MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CIGS MAY LOWER
BRIEFLY BELOW 1000FT AT MAF AFTER 09Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME IN IMPLEMENTING THIS INTO THE TAF. BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER (5-10 KTS) AND SHIFTING
EASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 30 45 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 77 34 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 79 44 52 39 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 78 37 45 36 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 68 34 45 33 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 75 29 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 74 31 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 33 45 36 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 33 45 36 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 75 34 45 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11
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