261
FXUS64 KMAF 150450
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1050 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MONDAY LOOKS CHILLY, THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
BRRRR! WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS MAKES. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF THE RIVER, AND POST-FRONTAL WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 40 MPH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS IN SOME PARTS. CAA AND A HEALTHY MIX OF
STRATUS AND HIGH CLOUD WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS, AVERAGING A WHOPPING 30 F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE WEST COAST RIDGE MOVING THOUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS, AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
FORTUNATELY, SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO VEER BACK AROUND TO
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT, HALTING CAA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, PROMOTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN
THERE, SO IT'LL BE A WASH. INSTEAD, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS, ONLY COLDER IN THE SOUTH, WHICH HIT THEIR
LOWS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FULL EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WERE REALIZED.
MONDAY, A TROUGH WILL LIE TO THE WEST, LEAVING WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO JUMP CONSIDERABLY, W/NBM INCREASING HIGHS ABOUT 15 F
OVER TODAY'S. UNFORTUNATELY, CLOUD COVER DOESN'T LOOK TO BUDGE
MUCH, AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC BUST, WHERE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK
TO WARM THINGS UP. THEREFORE, WE'LL STICK CLOSER TO THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT, SKIES FINALLY LOOK TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT NW-SE, BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY DUE TO RETURN FLOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOWS ~ 5-6 F WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
THE ONLY UPSIDE IS THAT THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLDEST PART OF THIS
WEEK'S FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY,
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE, HELPING TO DRAW WEST/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES END UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH, THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, WINDS SWITCH FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY REACH
INTO THE 70S, THEN SLIP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THURSDAY, BUT REMAINS WEAK DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION REACHES THE 70S TO LOW 80S
(NEAR THE RIO GRANDE). THE JET STREAM SPANS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CONUS FRIDAY, WITH LITTLE AMPLIFICATION SATURDAY. THIS ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S FRIDAY, THEN 70S/80S SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY AT HOB, MAF, FST, AND PEQ AFTER 10Z. BR MAY OCCUR
OVER HOB AND FST SITES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT
ABOVE 3000 FT BY 17Z-19Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
AND SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 38 33 55 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 45 32 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 43 37 53 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 38 35 60 44 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 43 33 54 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 43 31 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 48 29 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 38 35 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 38 36 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 41 34 53 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11
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