378
FXUS64 KMAF 172305
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST.
- THERE IS A HIGH (70-90%) PROBABILITY OF RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWED
EVIDENCE OF A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER TRANS-PECOS REGION,
INDICATED BY A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, YET STILL HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO KEEP OUR AREA
ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY, DESPITE THE WEAK FRONTS.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY. IN
FACT, THERE IS A HIGH (70-90%) PROBABILITY OF BREAKING RECORD HIGHS
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S FOR MOST
(THANKS TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW). FOR REFERENCE, THE PREVIOUS
RECORD HIGH AT KMAF WAS 79F, SET BACK IN 2010. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS COULD BE A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE JET
STREAM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SEND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING SUNDAY'S HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES FOR
SUNDAY'S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID, THE LACK OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW. AS
SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MAY TREND UPWARD A LITTLE BIT AS
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOR MOST AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST.
GREENING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MORNING, BUT WILL BE WEAK, AND NOT
WORTH A GUST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 43 65 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 44 75 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 44 79 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 48 74 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 45 65 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 44 69 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 37 72 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 45 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 46 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 40 73 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99
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