934
FXUS64 KMAF 181726
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST.
- THERE IS A HIGH (70-90%) PROBABILITY OF RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
US/CANADA BORDER IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST, LEAVING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER
DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KMAF RAOB CAM IN WITH A PWAT OF 0.16".
EVEN BY DECEMBER CLIMATOLOGY, THAT WORKS OUT TO A LITTLE OVER THE
5TH PERCENTILE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, A DRY FORECAST REMAINS ON TAP.
ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES ARE PROMOTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS MORNING, WTM KMAF SODAR SHOWS A ~ 30 KT SW-W JET ALOFT, AND
THIS MIXING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS AROUND 12-14 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR THE AREA BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING, AFFECTING MAINLY THE PERMIAN BASIN/WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THESE AREAS WILL COOL BY A FEW DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS, WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA WARMS BY A FEW
DEGREES.
SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK AROUND TO RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT,
ARRESTING CAA, BUT NOT BEFORE IT SHAVES ~ 6-7 F OFF THIS MORNING'S
LOWS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL NOT HELP, EITHER.
THERE WILL BE A QUICK RECOVERY ON FRIDAY AS LEESIDE TROUGHING
INCREASES SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND RETURN FLOW
OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
THICKNESSES, YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING OVER 15 F ABOVE
NORMAL. BETTER YET, THIS IS JUST A WARM-UP TO SATURDAY...
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SET ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR
DECEMBER 20TH AT MAF IS 79 AND MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS FOR A FEW DAYS.
THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND ALONG WITH IT A COLD
FRONT THAT BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. STILL,
HIGHS IN THE 60S WON'T FEEL MUCH LIKE WINTER HAS BEGUN.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE 70S WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AND YES, THAT DOES INCLUDE
CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE SPRING THAN WINTER.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING DOWN AROUND 21Z. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z FRIDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 35 71 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 36 77 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 40 71 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 43 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 41 68 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 34 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 31 73 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 37 71 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 39 71 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 35 76 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...55
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