115
FXUS64 KMAF 040850
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 250 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, A COOLING TREND BEGINS MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TODAY AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S FOR MOST. THE FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR IS NORMALLY THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALLEY FOR TEMPERATURES WITH KMAF SEEING A HIGH OF 58
AND LOW OF 32 ON AVERAGE. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S FOR MOST. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH STRONG WINDS SEEN IN THE
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE SHORT TERM.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A
LARGE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SWEEPS INTO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, AND LOWER 50S IN THE BIG BEND
AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. HIGHS TUESDAY WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN TEXAS, WITH 70S
FOR ALMOST EVERYONE ELSE.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFTING EASTWARD AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS SLOWLY
FALL. THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SWING FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TOWARD OUR REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY'S. GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 60S
TO 70S (IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE). THE
TROUGH SLUGGISHLY DEPARTS TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE 50S AND 60S, WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COOLEST
OF THE THREE DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND DIP INTO THE
20S AND 30S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
VEERING WEST AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 47 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 69 47 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 72 46 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 80 50 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 64 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 69 43 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 72 39 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 48 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 71 48 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 72 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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