835
FXUS64 KMAF 042306
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 447 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. AVOID TRAVEL AND SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS
OUTSIDE IF POSSIBLE.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE MID-WEEK, FOLLOWED
BY A LOW (20% TO 30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AND 10F TO 20F COOLER HIGHS AND LOWS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE BIG PICTURE WE'RE SEEING FOR THIS WEEK IS WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A
PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND THEN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
TODAY HAS DEPICTED MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO
THE AREA, PUTTING THE AREA CLOSER TO THE REGION OF SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW, WHICH DIFFERS FROM HOW THE REGION OF NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MORE
MOISTURE ADVECTION, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE HAVE
ALSO INCREASED INTO THE 40S F OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE 30S F FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS WAS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING TODAY WILL OFFSET THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ALONG WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MUCH OF LEA COUNTY INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN, THIS ALL
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 70S F, 60S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INTO MOST OF SE NM PLAINS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S F STOCKTON
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE BASINS, AND LOWER TO MID 80S F BIG BEND.
TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING, SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE GUADALUPES, AS DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S TO LOWER TO MID 40S F RANGE
AMIDST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND MECHANICAL MIXING OF THE STABLE NOCTURNAL LAYER BY
WINDS WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW 40 F. INSTEAD, LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F RANGE, AROUND 5F TO
10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION PERSIST,
WHILE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS INCREASE IN HIGH WINDS OF A JET
STREAK EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
SOUTHWEST UPPER STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS ON MONDAY
AT LEAST 5F WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURE - DEW POINT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN IN THE 20F TO 25F RANGE IN MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, WHILE LOWER ATMOSPHERE PROFILES REMAIN NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC. DESPITE THESE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, NBM AND NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE FOR THE GUADALUPES SHOWING WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 45 TO 60 MPH, AND ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40%
TO 60%) PROBABILITY OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH, A HIGH WIND
WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FOR
THE GUADALUPES, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG THESE HIGH WINDS
WILL LAST. FOR NOW, JUST BUMPED UP WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE
GUADALUPES AND DELAWARES FOR MONDAY. THE INCREASED WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL STILL ACT TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST AND
REDUCE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S F,
WHILE KEEPING A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE STAGE SET FOR MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT COOLING FROM
REDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, COOLER LOWS ARE FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT. LOWS DECREASE BACK INTO THE 30S F FOR MOST OF SE NM PLAINS
INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND WINDWARD BASINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
THE MARFA PLATEAU, FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S F RANGE NORTH OF RIO
GRANDE BASINS AND LOWER TO MID 50S F RIO GRANDE BASINS. THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC SW WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY
AND DEVELOP EAST INTO THE DESERT SW MID-WEEK, BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE AND ALLOWING A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY LATE WEEK. READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TUESDAY BEGINS THE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND TX PANHANDLE.
CONCURRENTLY, A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA INTO THE DESERT SW AND LESS LARGE SCALE SINKING AND
WARMING AIR RESULTS IN HIGHS UP TO 5F COOLER THAN MONDAY FOR
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S F FOR MUCH OF THE SE NM PLAINS AND
REMAINING IN THE 60S F FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE REMAINING
IN THE 70S F FOR MOST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS,
AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND RISING IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S F RIO
GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY. WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS
AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 20S TO 30S F RANGE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SIMILAR TO TUESDAY FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IN MID TO UPPER
LEVELS UPSTREAM, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20% TO 30%) HAVE STAYED
CONSISTENTLY OVER CULBERSON COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN,
WHILE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE CHARACTERIZED BY 30F TO 35F TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES, AND NBM AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES SHOW ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM FLOODING OR HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS IF NOT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER OVER EASTERN REGIONS (WHERE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES/BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN LATEST RUNS CONTINUES TO INCREASE BEFORE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON), WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD
~5F TREK FROM THE DAY AS THE REGION OF INCREASED LIFT AND COOLING
OF AIR IN FRONT OF THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE AREA AND
RIDGING CONTINUES TO DE- AMPLIFY.
WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F, 50S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND 70S F RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY GIVE
WAY TO LOWS FALLING NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING FOR BASINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS, WITH LOWER
TO MID 30S F IN SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS OF UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER TO MID 40S F
ELSEWHERE. THESE UP TO 5F TO 10F COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS
MARK THE UNOFFICIAL START OF THE DESCENT TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. CURRENT RUNS ARE STILL CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN SHOWING THE COLD FRONT FINALLY CLEARING THE
AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND CAA IS UNLEASHED. HIGHS
FALL BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F RANGE, LOWS NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT. FOLLOWING FRIDAY NIGHT, NEXT WEEKEND SETTLES INTO THIS
MORE SEASONABLE AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS. FOR NEXT WEEKEND, NBM AND ENSEMBLES ARE STILL
SHOWING NON- ZERO PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS FOR THE
AREA, RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, CURRENT RUNS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION COINCIDING WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, AND AN EARLIER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IN MORE
RECENT RUNS HAS RESULTED IN A WARMING TREND IN LOWS BACK ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASINS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
HOW THIS CHANGES, BUT FOR NOW THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FOR THE AREA
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INCREASED CLOUD AND RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE - IF
NOT BELOW AVERAGE - TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
AT TIMES. S-SW FLOW WILL VEER OVERNIGHT TO WEST, INCREASING AND
BECOMING GUSTY AT MOST TERMINALS BY NOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 47 78 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 48 73 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 46 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 50 80 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 46 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 42 73 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 38 72 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 47 77 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 47 76 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 44 77 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99
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