745
FXUS64 KMAF 060308
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
908 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 908 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
(40-50%) ODDS WILL BE OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A COOLING TREND BEGINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
ZONAL FLOW IS GOING TO DO WHAT ZONAL FLOW DOES AND THAT IS GIVE US
DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS PROVIDE US WITH DRY AIR THAT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
THE PATTERN CHANGES SOME LATE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MOVES INLAND ALONG THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
REACHING NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN
ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
INCREASE (30-50%) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A CONCERN.
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT GULF MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA SO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS UNFORTUNATELY WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT
WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL, BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH. NOT GREAT BUT WE WILL TAKE ANYTHING WE CAN
GET, ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS OUR DRY SEASON.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASE THURSDAY AND HIGH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND COMBINES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FURTHER
NORTH UNLEASHING COLD AIR SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS ARE HELD IN THE 50S
AND LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE HOLDS THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN SOONER THAN
CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ESPECIALLY AS
SOME MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW COULD APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE WEST, BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO VARY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 42 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 40 68 42 72 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 51 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 49 74 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 44 61 45 63 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 38 70 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 39 72 39 74 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 44 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 44 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 40 72 42 75 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...99
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