340
FXUS64 KMAF 062301
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
LOOK LIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
- A COOLING TREND BEGINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR TO A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
YET ANOTHER WARM DAY UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU CAN AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY (HINT: WE WON'T BE STAYING
THAT WAY). ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S WHICH IS NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND BEGINS TO MOVE THIS DIRECTION. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME VERY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN 80S IN OUR RIVER
VALLEYS. THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MEDIUM (~50%) RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. MUCH OF
THE LIFT APPEARS TO MISS US TO THE NORTH SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE
DECREASED WITH THIS FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE WILL BE CONFINED TO SE NM AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
AND WHEN I SAY MEASURABLE, I MEAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE TROUGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING, DRYING US
OUT AND DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S FOR MOST.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT, WITH THE HELP OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING OUT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE BELOW CRITERIA AT
THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN
ANOTHER 7-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT AS WELL,
THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS BREEZY THAN THURSDAY AT THIS
TIME.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S) THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S FOR MOST AS HEIGHTS INCREASE. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
GREENING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 43 78 49 68 / 0 0 50 10
CARLSBAD 43 73 45 63 / 0 10 60 10
DRYDEN 50 79 54 75 / 0 0 20 0
FORT STOCKTON 49 82 50 69 / 0 0 40 0
GUADALUPE PASS 46 62 39 52 / 0 20 70 10
HOBBS 42 73 42 63 / 0 10 60 10
MARFA 39 75 36 60 / 0 10 40 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 46 76 49 66 / 0 0 50 10
ODESSA 48 75 48 65 / 0 0 50 10
WINK 43 75 46 65 / 0 10 50 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE
AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11
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