559
FXUS64 KMAF 071758
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1158 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. THOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK LIGHT, A STORM OR TWO MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES TODAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING
INTO THE 70S. UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE REGION. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. A DRY FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TO THE
SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR MIDLAND/ODESSA AND POINTS EAST DO NOT
SHOW A ROBUST ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADDED SHEAR, DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ARE PRESENT. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS, RAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO FALL, ESPECIALLY IN
SE NM AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL IMPROVE CHANCES FOR RAIN MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND PUSH
OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT SETTLE
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 50F WHERE BETTER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE UPGRADED THE INHERITED HIGH WIND
WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY END UP ABOUT 10 OR SO DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO TODAY'S EXPECTED HIGHS, BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JANUARY.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AID IN BRINGING US
RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DIGS INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
THURSDAY EVENING. BY THIS TIME, THE SHORTWAVE THAT LED TO BREEZY TO
STRONG WINDS EARLIER THURSDAY WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST, ALLOWING
WINDS TO TAPER DOWN AND RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, STRONG
WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOOK TO ELEVATE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE FOUND IN AND NEAR THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, WHERE HIGH WIND PRODUCTS ARE AGAIN
LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S, THEN WARM INTO THE 50S/60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT, THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION, USHERING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH. WINDS CALM DOWN BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE SIT IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S, WITH
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LEE COUNTY AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN THE
TEENS. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LIES NEAR THE ROCKIES. SATURDAY'S HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S, THEN DIP INTO THE 20S (TEENS AGAIN IN/NEAR THE DAVIS'
AND NORTHERN LEE COUNTY) SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS,
HEIGHTS INCREASE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE 50S BOTH DAYS, THEN INTO THE 50S/60S TUESDAY. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGS OUT OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KFT AGL WILL
THICKEN THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NEAR KCNM
AND KHOB LATE. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ALSO
PICKING UP TO 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONT. PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY OBSCURE VISIBILITY TO AT LEAST MVFR
THRESHOLDS IN A FEW SPOTS ON THURSDAY BUT OUR CONFIDENCE WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 77 52 69 41 / 0 40 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 47 62 39 / 10 80 0 0
DRYDEN 79 55 75 44 / 0 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 81 51 69 42 / 0 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 63 40 51 34 / 10 80 0 10
HOBBS 72 45 63 37 / 10 70 0 0
MARFA 74 37 59 29 / 0 40 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 51 67 41 / 0 30 0 0
ODESSA 75 51 66 41 / 0 30 0 0
WINK 74 47 65 38 / 10 50 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 9 PM
CST /8 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page