139
FXUS64 KMAF 080826
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST, IF NOT
ALL, THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE BLOWING DUST COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY TODAY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
60S FOR MOST WITH 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT SEES
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST WITH NEAR FREEZING TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS AND
THE MARFA PLATEAU.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F EAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WITH
50S HANGING ON TO THE WEST. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WITHOUT
PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AND
FURTHER WIND PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS DETAILED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FRIDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING INTO OUR REGION.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY CALM DOWN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO SIT IN THE TEENS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LEE COUNTY AND
SPOTS IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS,
AND LOW 30S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
DEPARTING TO OUR NORTHEAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER
THE ROCKIES, ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THEN DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
NIGHT BEFORE, INTO THE 20S AND 30S AGAIN.
SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE THE
TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION, DRAGGING ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN STATES. MODELS ALSO SHOW
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WITH INCREASING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE, SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 50S. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO
MEANDER TOWARD OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WHEN
IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY JOIN BACK WITH THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
AS IT DOES SO, IT BRINGS LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME, THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEAR SOME WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS REGARDING
PRECIP TYPES. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE 60S MAKE A RETURN TO SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SWEEP INTO
THE REGION, THOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL LARGELY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS
WITH GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 30 KTS. THIS WIND WILL SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THERE IS A HIGH
(70%) CHANCE OF -RA AT KCNM AND KHOB WITH LOWER CHANCES EAST.
GUSTY WINDS COULD KICK UP BLDU THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 69 40 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 63 39 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 75 44 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 69 42 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 51 34 45 25 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 64 37 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 59 29 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 41 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 41 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 65 38 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29
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