826
FXUS64 KMAF 090434
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1034 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. RECENT GROUND-
BASED OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 TO 90
MPH AT THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK.
A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL THUS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING IN
THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT
UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS, WHERE
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE REGIONS, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE 8-12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S FOR MOST (50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN). EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. LOWS
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 20S IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IS STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE AREA. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND YIELDING LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR MOST (TEENS IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS).
-GREENING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA (5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING END UP SIMILAR TO, IF NOT 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
SATURDAY MORNING'S LOWS. TEMPERATURES NEAR-TO-BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
STICK AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES RELATIVE
TO SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN TRIES TO DEVELOP. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S START TO MAKE A
REAPPEARANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
ONE THING WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND MEANDER TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NBM POPS ROSE
TODAY IN THE BIG BEND (20-30% CHANCE), WHILE LOWER CHANCES (10-20%)
EXPANDED MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SEEMS TO BE
MAINLY THANKS TO THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE,
WHICH WERE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AND ESPECIALLY THE GEFS ENSEMBLE WERE MORE
PESSIMISTIC, KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE (AND THUS THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES) FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW, LEFT THE 20-30% POPS IN THE BIG
BEND, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND TERRELL COUNTY, BUT UNDERCUT THE NBM
SUCH THAT 15-20% RAIN CHANCES REMAINED SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER.
THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THIS EXPECTED
TIMING AND FORECASTED SUBFREEZING LOWS MONDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
THING WE WILL MONITOR IS TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR THE BIG
BEND UP INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, AND QPF LOOKS LIGHT OVERALL.
IN ANY CASE, STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
STRONG WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW, BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWITCH
WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY. VFR TO PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 39 62 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 40 57 28 49 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN 43 72 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 41 63 31 50 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 34 45 25 41 / 0 0 10 0
HOBBS 37 56 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 28 55 20 46 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 41 61 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 41 59 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 37 59 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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