755
FXUS64 KMAF 091730
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/
FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
- A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE BIG BEND AREA AND PRESIDIO
VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS, PORTENDING A BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WITH A LITTLE BLDU IN THE MIX. ACCORDING THE
THE NAM, A MTN WAVE SIGNATURE SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE GUADALUPES
AT 06Z, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MESONETS AT THE CAVERNS AND
GUADALUPE MTNS NATIONAL PARK. NEITHER HAS OFFICIALLY HIT HIGH WIND
YET, BUT THEY'VE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS EAST
TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIXING COMMENCES AFTER SUNUP, HIGHER
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP, AND THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS THIS
WELL. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND TODAY, AND A
WEAK PAC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 5 F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND 2-4 F
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. INCREASED WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POCKETS
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RFD ATTM.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. UNFORTUNATELY, A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTRUDES UPON THE AREA, AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN
THE GUADALUPES, MAINLY GAP WINDS THROUGH KGDP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP BY ~ 10-12 F FROM THIS MORNING'S LOWS, PUTTING THEM WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS FORECAST AS THICKNESSES
BOTTOM OUT. HIGHS LOOK TO AVERAGE ~ 6-8 F BELOW NORMAL.
FORTUNATELY, POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS FORECAST AS WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, PROMOTING EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ~ 3-5 F BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY, A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ELONGATES
SOUTHWEST INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA, SENDING SHORTWAVES UP
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NBM IS DEVELOPING -RASN IN THE BIG
BEND AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ECMWF IS THE WET OUTLIER INFLUENCING THIS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED, AS OTHER DETERMINISTIC LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE DRY. AT ANY
RATE, ISOLATED AREAS W/ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2" OR LESS ARE ALL THAT'S
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
MONDAY, RETURN FLOW RESUMES, BUT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE CUT-OFF
LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING ENE, AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE INCREASING.
TUESDAY, THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, AND BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, THE LREF
HAS THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UNDER
DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS
FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ~ 5-10 F ABOVE WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR, MAKING THURSDAY FEEL MORE LIKE
LATE FEBRUARY THAN MID JANUARY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
BEGUN AT ALL SITES. SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 (AND OCCASIONALLY 35) KTS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HELP KEEP GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THEY WANE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 30 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 58 29 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 71 36 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 32 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 47 27 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 56 26 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 55 21 46 16 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 31 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 60 31 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 60 29 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page