282
FXUS64 KMAF 092345
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. DECREASING TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDER OF THE DAYS. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING A WEATHER SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM (25%
TO 45%) PROBABILITY OF A FEW TENTHS WINTRY MIX OR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO
COUNTIES MONDAY.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO LATE WEEK, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVING OVER PARTS
OF WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THANKS TO THESE FEATURES
AND A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS
IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG AS YESTERDAY'S, SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS TONIGHT, BUT BY
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS
(INCLUDING STRONG GAP WINDS FOR GUADALUPE PASS) AND MUCH MORE
JANUARY-LIKE TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT PLUMMET INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST, WITH UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS AND TEENS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN (PARTICULARLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS). HIGHS TOMORROW
END UP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROMOTE EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS IN THE 20S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON AREAWIDE, WITH
TEENS IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE WEEKEND COMES TO A CLOSE ON A MORE UNSETTLED NOTE
PRECIPITATION-WISE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL DEPICT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR WEATHER GIVING WAY TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER SYSTEM AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BE OVERLAIN BY A LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS.
HIGHS SUNDAY FOLLOWING WHAT MIGHT BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS
WINTER ONLY RISE INTO THE 50S F, WITH 40S F COMMON OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM GUADALUPES INTO MARFA PLATEAU. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE TEENS DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS F WILL
MEAN VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA PAST SATURDAY.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY
MORNING, WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS FROM
THE MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FROM BAJA, WILL
LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING. THIS WILL MEAN LOWS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN
MAKING A REAPPEARANCE OVER THE RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL
COUNTY, WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING LOWS FOR THE REGION NORTH OF
RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY AS MID TO LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCE INCREASES.
TEMPERATURE - DEW POINT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM GREATER THAN 30F TO WITHIN
10F AS THIS OCCURS. HOWEVER, DESPITE MORE HUMID MID TO UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES AND RENEWED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS
AND ONLY RISE INTO THE 20S F RIO GRANDE BASINS, LIMITING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WINTRY MIX AND/OR SNOW ACCUMULATION. WHILE HIGHS RISE
INTO THE 50S F, LOWER 60S F NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND RIGHT
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ON MONDAY, TIMING OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (AT THIS TIME LOW TO MEDIUM 20% TO 30%) OVER THE
SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE SOUTHERN MARFA PLATEAU INTO RIO GRANDE
BASINS WILL COINCIDE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S F
MONDAY MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE WINDOW OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OPEN. LOWS ONLY WARM BY A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, KEEPING LOWS IN THE 30S F DOWN TO THE RIO
GRANDE BASINS AND REMAINING CLOSE TO FREEZING WITH 20S F IN BASINS
AND FOOTHILLS, VALLEYS, AND NORTHERNMOST REGIONS. THEREFORE,
WEATHER GRIDS ARE STILL SHOWING WINTRY MIX AND SNOW MIXING IN WITH
RAIN MOST OF MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO STAY LOW DUE
TO THE VERY DRY AIR, UP TO A TENTH AND UP TO AN INCH,
RESPECTIVELY. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE OVER THE PEAKS NEAR THE CHISOS BASIN, FARTHER SOUTH OF
WHERE MORE CONSISTENT FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND WINTRY MIX ARE INDICATED IN WEATHER GRIDS OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES - BUT ALSO FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE HOW THE FORECAST CHANGES
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, COVERAGE, AND TIMING, BUT
FOR NOW WE EXPECT A LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 45%) PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASINS.
BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, THE MID TO UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO WASH OUT
OVER THE AREA, AND THE NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS. THIS ALLOWS SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL
WEAK COLD FRONTS TO REOCCUR, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
EITHER TOO COLD OR TOO WARM WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAY OUT
OF THE FORECAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OSCILLATE FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AND BACK TO SOUTHERLY AS THESE
FEATURES DEVELOP AND PROGRESS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 60S F,
50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS REMAINING NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING FROM MARFA PLATEAU INTO SE NM PLAINS AND WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, AND 30S F ELSEWHERE. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S F FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT COOLING OF LOWS INTO 30S F AND
BELOW TO PERSIST. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR ZERO AFTER THE POSSIBLE WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE RIO
GRANDE BASINS EARLY THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY AT 15-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
OVER 30 KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 10-15 KT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 29 50 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 28 46 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 35 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 31 49 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 26 40 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 25 48 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 20 44 15 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 30 49 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 30 48 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 28 49 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21
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