685
FXUS64 KMAF 101956
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
156 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH (30-50%
CHANCE). RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES, OR EVEN CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW, BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LAST NIGHT'S FRONT HAS CLEARED WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THIS MORNING, AND POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET IN OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (ESPECIALLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS)
AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. HIGHS
TOMORROW WARM A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT NEVERTHELESS STAY
NEAR/JUST BELOW NORMAL. MOST LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
50S, WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
STILL DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
TONIGHT. THIS LOW HOVERS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO GET CAUGHT BACK UP INTO THE FLOW ALOFT AND TRANSITION
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM HAVE CONTINUED
TO BE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE BIG BEND, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
(INCLUDING THE GEFS, GEPS, HRRR, AND RAP) EXPRESS VARYING DEGREES OF
PESSIMISM. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY KEEPS
PRETTY MUCH ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE
JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE GFS, WHILE LESS PESSIMISTIC THAN
IN PREVIOUS DAYS, STILL DEPICTS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN THE
BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. ALL OF THAT IS TO
SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, SO POPS WERE KEPT AT 10-30%
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE
BIG BEND, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. NEVERTHELESS,
SNOWFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY LOW (A COUPLE OF TENTHS AT
VERY BEST, MOST OF WHICH WOULD LIKELY MELT OFF QUICKLY). FURTHER
DETAILS ON MONDAY-TUESDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS A BIT HIGHER LATER MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WOULD REMAIN IN THE BIG
BEND, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS (30-50%), WITH LOWER
CHANCES (10-30%) TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS-
PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND
50S AREAWIDE. AS A RESULT, RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. BY
TUESDAY MORNING, LINGERING RAIN CHANCES GET PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST.
BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND
(ESPECIALLY FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS) LOW 60S. WARMING
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 60S FOR MOST (ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). HIGHS COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT.
BEYOND TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NIL.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY, BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 25 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 24 53 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 31 58 38 55 / 0 0 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 25 55 34 55 / 0 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 27 45 31 47 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 24 55 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 15 50 25 44 / 0 0 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 26 56 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 27 55 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 23 54 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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