927
FXUS64 KMAF 241744
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1144 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM, ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING RAIN, SLEET,
AND SNOW, WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
AND INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO
OR MORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA FOR
ANIMALS AND PEOPLE.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF BROKEN PIPES
AND WATER DAMAGE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW STILL TO COME. WE ARE IN
THE THICK OF IT WITH TRAVEL CONDITIONS ONLY GETTING WORSE FROM
HERE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS. THE FREEZING LINE HAS
MADE IT TO I-10 SO P-TYPE IS GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN DOWN THERE WITH SLEET MORE PROMINENT FURTHER NORTH. MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN ENOUGH SLEET TO COVER
THE GROUND, INCLUDING ROADS. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH 20S ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND
WIND CHILLS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO ZERO.
WE ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST, HOWEVER
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG IS FILLING IN. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS
ROUND WILL BRING PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 90 CORRIDOR. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN TROUGH, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SE NM, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE TEENS PERMIAN BASIN, 20S DOWN TO I-10, AND 40S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. SOME COLD RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY, ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH
THE RECORD COLD HIGH FOR MAF ONLY 28 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SLOWLY MIXING
IN WITH SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHEN IT'S ALL SAID AND
DONE MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE FROM
FREEZING RAIN AND AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SE NM WHERE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER SOONER. SNOW AMOUNTS THERE COULD REACH 4-6 INCHES.
ANYWAY YOU LOOK AT IT, DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO WARM,
STAYING IN THE 20S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND TEENS DOWN TO THE RIO GRANDE. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR FREEZING FOG AS THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF ICE
AND SNOW ON THE GROUND. AND DUE TO THIS FACT, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
REACH FREEZING ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO RETARD ANY KIND OF WARMING TREND.
WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW FINALLY DEVELOPS TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY
HELP THE MELTING PROCESS. HIGHS LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 30S/40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THAT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
IFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. FZFG HAS BEEN PREVALENT AT FST, THOUGH IT IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT. A MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BASED OFF
OF PREVIOUS BANDS, OPTED TO GO WITH A TEMPO OF LIFR VIS AND CIGS.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND AFTER
06Z, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE THIS BAND DEVELOPS.
NORTHEAST WINDS (10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WINDS) EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 14 9 25 2 / 90 90 30 0
CARLSBAD 23 11 26 6 / 90 90 60 0
DRYDEN 31 19 35 16 / 80 80 20 0
FORT STOCKTON 24 13 26 12 / 90 70 40 0
GUADALUPE PASS 24 8 23 14 / 90 100 70 0
HOBBS 16 8 25 4 / 100 90 40 0
MARFA 37 21 39 16 / 90 90 60 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 16 10 25 6 / 90 80 30 0
ODESSA 16 10 25 8 / 90 80 30 0
WINK 21 12 26 9 / 90 80 50 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CRANE-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-
WINKLER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER-
CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN
LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN
LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11
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