412
FXUS64 KMAF 250442
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1042 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM, ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING RAIN, SLEET,
AND SNOW, WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
AND INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO
OR MORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA FOR
ANIMALS AND PEOPLE.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF BROKEN PIPES
AND WATER DAMAGE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
A DANGEROUS COLD AND WINTER STORM EVENT CONTINUES TO IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND A GOOD PORTION OF WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH
OF REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND THE 20S ACROSS ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND RIO GRANDE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S. SNYDER HAS ACTUALLY DROPPED TO
9 DEGREES AS OF NOON CST. RADAR AS OF MIDDAY SHOWS HEAVIER BANDS OF
SLEET AND SNOW LIFTING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN, AND UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION, WHILE LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREAS IN THE SUB-
FREEZING AIRMASS.
SHORT RANGE MODEL AND CAM SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH ONE LAST ROUND COMING IN ALONG THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
KMAF 18Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7 C NEAR AND JUST ABOVE 800 MB. THIS WARM
LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, BUT
UNTIL THEN A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND POTENTIALLY SOME BANDS OF
FREEZING RAIN MAY STILL OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20 AND I-10. A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST NM AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/BIG BEND AREA
WHERE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.2" MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS VAN HORN CORRIDOR, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.1 INCH FURTHER EAST. TOTAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER
TRANS PECOS REGION, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PASSING TROUGH
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW/SLEET TOTALS GENERALLY AVERAGE
LESS THAN 1" ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF I-10 AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL, WE STILL EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS COLD LASTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUAL LOWS RANGING FROM 5-10 DEGREES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT
IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN, WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS STRETCHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND NORTHERN BIG BEND. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
AROUND -5 F WILL IMPACT THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGITS REACHING INTO THE TRANS PECOS AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S DOWN TO ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR, WITH WARMER READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN BIG BEND. CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN A LONG TIME WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN/NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. READINGS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S STRETCH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
LOWER IN THE ZERO TO -10 F RANGE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUING DOWN INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION. WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING FOG GIVEN ICE AND SNOW
LEFT OVER ON THE GROUND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 ON MONDAY.
WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW FINALLY DEVELOPS TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY
HELP THE MELTING PROCESS. HIGHS LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 30S/40S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THAT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. A WEAK
PASSING SYSTEM MAY BRING A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SOME OF THE LATEST SOLUTIONS
SHOW BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT STAYING TO OUR SOUTH, SO IT IS POSSIBLE
WE REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
ROUND TWO IS ON THE WAY OVERNIGHT, AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SECONDARY TROUGH MERGING W/THE FIRST. 00Z KMAF RAOB CAME IN W/A
WARM NOSE INDICATIVE OF FZRA, BUT SURFACE OBS AND BUFFER SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE WARM NOSE FELL BELOW 3 C AFTER 03Z, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE, SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO SNOW. THUS, EXPECT
LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE MAJORITY OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. ALL TERMINALS SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY 22Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 9 25 2 25 / 90 30 0 0
CARLSBAD 11 26 6 26 / 90 60 0 0
DRYDEN 19 35 16 36 / 80 20 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 13 26 12 30 / 70 40 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 8 23 14 29 / 100 70 0 0
HOBBS 8 25 4 27 / 90 40 0 0
MARFA 21 39 16 43 / 90 60 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 10 25 6 27 / 80 30 0 0
ODESSA 10 25 8 27 / 80 30 0 0
WINK 12 26 9 28 / 80 50 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CRANE-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-
WINKLER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER-
CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN
LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN
LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99
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