187
FXUS64 KMAF 280436
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1036 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADS MAY BE SEEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING.
- ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHOT OF COLD AIR IS IN STORE LATE WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO WARM UP TODAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNS TO
THE AREA. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA AND 50S FURTHER SOUTH. TONIGHT, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AFTERWARDS. WITH THAT SAID, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
6-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM
ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S
LOWS UP 9-12 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT'S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA (MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FURTHER SOUTH).
GREENING
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE LONG-TERM BEGINS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE SENDS A COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION BY THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LAG AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10, WHILE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO MID
70S SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST,
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME SHOWS A MCFARLAND SIGNATURE
WHERE A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PREVALENT OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS SIGNATURE INDICATES COLD CANADIAN
AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE USHERED INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS. OUR LATEST
COLD SNAP AND WINTER WEATHER EVENT THIS PAST WEEKEND RESULTED
FROM A SIMILAR UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN. LUCKILY, NO PRECIPITATION AND
NOT AS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST WEEKEND. THE COLDER AIR LOOKS
TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S, THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN THESE TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING
UPPER RIDGE, COINCIDING WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMS THE
REGION BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF PRODUCTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 16 48 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 19 45 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 26 60 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 24 53 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 28 43 33 47 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 17 48 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 22 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 20 49 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 20 48 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 18 47 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21
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