193
FXUS64 KMAF 300103
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
703 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 702 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST,
PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A SNOW/ICE PACK OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND AREAS OF WEST TEXAS TO THE EAST, BUT INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS.
NBM HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT COLD AS OF LATE, SO WE'LL STAY ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF IT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME
IN AROUND 3-5 F BELOW NORMAL, BUT THIS WILL AVERAGE ~ 7-9 F WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, A COLD FRONT DROPS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND
SHAVING A FEW DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING'S MINIMUMS.
FRIDAY, WEAK CAA CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT, AND HIGHS SHOULD BE
~ 2-4 F BELOW THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS.
FRIDAY NIGHT, UNFORTUNATELY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAKING FRIDAY NIGHT PERHAPS THE COLDEST ONE THIS
FORECAST, ASSISTED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
PROMOTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FIRST PLACE. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND THE 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CONTINUES TO FILTER COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, EXCEPT 50S FOR MOST OF THE PRESIDIO VALLEY AND
BIG BEND REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THIS COLDER AIRMASS
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NEAR THE BIG BEND. SUNDAY SEES A NICE
WARMUP AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES THE AREA, YIELDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
WARMUP CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY RETURNING
BACK TO NORMAL. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AT MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT IS 60 F. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BE SENT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK, YIELDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BRINGING LOW (10-
20%) CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND
THEY WILL NEED TO BE IRONED IN THE COMING DAYS.
GREENING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 27 56 23 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 29 52 26 44 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 40 62 34 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 35 59 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 32 47 30 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 28 54 23 42 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 28 56 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 30 57 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 31 56 26 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 29 55 28 45 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...10
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