545
FXUS64 KMAF 300655
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING OVER THE AREA INCREASES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A QUIET END TO THE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS RIDGING FROM THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST INTO
GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING OVER THE MS VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC
DELIVERS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGES.
NIGHTTIME IR AND FOG IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING WEST TO EAST IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, BUT
ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS, NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WISE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TODAY, EVEN AS HIGHS COOL A FEW DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THE MOVED THROUGH
LAST EVENING. MID TO UPPER 50S F, 40S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND 60S F
STOCKTON PLATEAU AND RIO BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY ARE FORECAST AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS VEER BACK TO SOUTHERLY.
TONIGHT, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, TEENS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND MARFA PLATEAU INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND
STOCKTON PLATEAU AMIDST LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT COOLING THAT
DROPS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG
BEND, WHERE LOWS STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THIS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE
WARMEST FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S F, BUT ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE 60S F NORTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN, AND STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 F NORTH OF I-20. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES CONSEQUENTLY RISE BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TO END
THE WEEKEND. MORE ON WHETHER THIS WARMING TREND HOLDS IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE LONG-TERM BEGINS WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S
PLACING THESE TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
DROPS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (MID 50S TO MID
60S). AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CREATE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, RESULTING IN LOW
(10-15%) RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE FAVORABLE ASCENT AND
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF THE REGION AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH.
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 57 22 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 54 25 43 25 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 61 32 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 60 29 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 47 29 43 31 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 55 22 42 22 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 55 24 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 57 24 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 56 25 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 56 25 45 25 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10
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