820
FXUS64 KMAF 310751
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
151 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG/MIST OVER PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SE
NM PLAINS THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHEN VISIBILITIES GET LOW, TAKE
IT SLOW!
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MID TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST INTO GREAT BASIN AND
MID TO UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR PERIODIC WEAK COLD FRONTS. NIGHT FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS,
BUT APPROACHING LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD
FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY, ADDED REGIONS OF PATCHY AND FREEZING FOG FOR
PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SE NM PLAINS TO GRIDS FOR SATURDAY
MORNING GIVEN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S F AND YIELDING T-TD SPREADS LESS THAN 5F, WITH FORECAST
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 5 MILES, LIGHT WINDS, AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST ADVECTING IN A COLDER AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR MASS. FREEZING FOG/MIST IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING, BUT CONTINUED CAA BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS NOT RISING ABOVE 60 F EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT FOR THE PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND, AND NOT RISING ABOVE
THE 50S F NORTH OF A CULBERSON COUNTY TO UPPER TRANS PECOS TO PECOS
RIVER VALLEY LINE. THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES INDICATED IN THE
MOST RECENT NBM RUN ARE OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
HIGHS REMAIN BELOW 40F. 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLES FOR
TEMPERATURES INDICATE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF COLDEST HIGHS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WARMEST HIGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS AGAIN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA. TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE 20S, LOWS ALSO
ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND, WHERE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S F, BOTH IN THE NBM AND ENSEMBLES.
AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN DEVELOPS EAST INTO THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES AND INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F RANGE, WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL
LARGELY REMAINING IN THE 20S F. WITH WINDS AGAIN VEERING TO
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT, LOWS ARE FINALLY FORECAST TO
STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE STILL A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
AND WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST, BUT WILL THIS MARK THE BEGINNING OF A RETURN TO
CONSISTENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES? READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
MORE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR NEXT WEEK. WARM
TEMPERATURES KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS PLACED OVER THE REGION. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S REGIONWIDE. BY LATE MONDAY, THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A RESULT, COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE WARMER IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, RESULTING IN VERY LOW (~10%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THESE VERY LOW CHANCES WILL BE PREVALENT NEAR THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY AND BIG BEND REGION. MUCH OF THE FAVORABLE ASCENT AND
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF THE REGION, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH. DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS THE REGION, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST PROVIDING MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL REACH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z. LOW MVFR OR IFR
CIG/VIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT HOB/MAF BEHIND THE FRONT 12-18Z
BEFORE DISSIPATING. INK COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF INTRUSION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 42 24 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 46 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 54 28 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 54 30 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 46 33 53 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 43 23 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 54 25 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 45 26 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 45 27 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 47 26 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10
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