640
FXUS64 KMAF 140934
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
334 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, A FEW BECOMING STRONG WITH SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING, CONTINUE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST.
- WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS SHALL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG, WITH THE MAIN THREATS REMAINING FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL. THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CURRENTLY
SITS OFF TO OUR WEST, BUT WILL BE TRAVERSING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
THE DAY, DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
IN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN AND NEAR THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL, BLOWING DUST
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE OF HIGH CONCERN. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN THROUGH
THE NIGHT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS SATURDAY ARE MAINLY FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S TO 70S, THEN DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY, UPPER RIDING BUILDS ALOFT. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH MOST OF THE DAY, EVENTUALLY GAINING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY,
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
HEADING INTO MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST 80F+ DAY OF THE YEAR POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND
ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON TUESDAY AND AN UPPER
LOW IMPINGES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WINDS
DECREASE AND WEAK FRONTS LOOK TO WASH THROUGH THE REGION KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. LOW
(<10%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE PROXIMITY AND TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING NEAR KMAF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT NEAR ALL TERMINALS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERED
CIGS/VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 70 43 70 42 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 69 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 77 50 77 47 / 40 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 69 45 71 47 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 58 42 63 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 67 38 70 41 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 61 32 68 35 / 20 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 44 70 45 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA 68 43 70 45 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 70 40 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21
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