410
FXUS64 KMAF 152309
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- HAZARDOUS WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
- STRONG WINDS AND DRY WEATHER SET UP NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT, LOWS DROP
IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST, WHILE SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING SETS UP. THIS WILL VEER WINDS BACK FROM THE SOUTH,
BRINGING MUCH WARMER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING PERSISTS CREATING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER TO
THE EAST. THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HAZARDOUS WINDY AND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS IN
THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE BEGINNING TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION, THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOUNTAIN WAVE
SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS SIGNATURE TYPICALLY INDICATES HAZARDOUS WINDS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-
90%) CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING AT OR ABOVE HIGH WIND CRITERIA
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY MID TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THEREFORE, A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FURTHER WIND PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
OTHER LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH MORE PRODUCTS ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS SET UP NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO EXTENDING INTO GAINES COUNTY, TX. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. MORE DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK WILL BE IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO CONSIDER WITH THESE STRONG WINDS IS BLOWING
DUST. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST LOOK TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, WHILE PATCHY BLOWING DUST OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A 1/4
MILE. FOR WEDNESDAY, A SIMILAR SETUP IS FORECAST AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL JET CORE SITS OVER/NEAR THE REGION.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
PROVIDING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (MID 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS)
WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO COOLER AIR BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KCNM, KHOB, AND
KMAF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY DUE TO CRITICAL
MINRH, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY WINDS. AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG
BEND RECEIVED LESS RAIN COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND WILL HAVE DRIER EXISTING FUELS. STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING NEAR-CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS AS FINER FUELS CURE. GREATEST CONCERNS
LIE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN ON
TUESDAY DUE TO DRIER EXISTING FUELS AND STRONGER WINDS. STRONG
WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND TRANS PECOS. HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY MITIGATE FIRE IGNITION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 43 80 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 41 81 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 46 81 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 47 85 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 45 72 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 40 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 36 78 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 44 79 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 42 81 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21
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