687
FXUS64 KMAF 171116
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
516 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
WINDS TO THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARES, THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND
RESPECTIVE ADJACENT PLAINS/FOOTHILLS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
- AREAS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WILL ALSO BE AT RISK OF
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, WITH BLOWING DUST TODAY ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES TODAY AS THE TROUGH'S STRONG JET CORE APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE JET CORE ITSELF LOOKS TO SET UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. THIS FEATURE TENDS TO
BRING ABOUT HAZARDOUS WINDS TO OUR MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARES, AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH THAT'LL
EXTEND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND DOWN TOWARD THE BIG BEND TODAY.
LIKEWISE, THIS FEATURE CAN BRING ABOUT BREEZY TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, GIVEN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS SUCH, THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING PLAINS (GUSTS UP TO 80
MPH) AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS (GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH) ARE UNDER A HIGH
WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS ARE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 55 MPH IN THESE AREAS. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE BREEZY TO LOW-END STRONG SIDE.
ASIDE FROM STRONG WINDS, THIS SYSTEM SHALL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP DAMPEN THE
EFFECT OF DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY PEAK
IN THE 70S TO 80S, WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE BIG BEND REACHING THE
90S. DESPITE THIS, WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINE TO RESULT
IN NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS, THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND GAINES COUNTY. BLOWING DUST
WILL BE ANOTHER HAZARD TO CONSIDER TODAY ACROSS THE WINDIEST AREAS
(SAME TIME FRAME AND LOCATION AS INCLUDED IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING
AND WIND ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS). THESE
LOCATIONS ARE UNDER A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND COULD OCCASIONALLY
SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS.
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION.
WINDS TAPER DOWN FOR MOST, THOUGH REMAIN BREEZY IN THE GUADALUPE/
GUADALUPE/ DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DECREASE INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, 40S FOR MOST, AND
50 IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE A VERY
SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY, THOUGH TO SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE AS THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH'S JET CORE SHIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS
BEING THE CASE, EXPECT HAZARDS AND PRODUCTS ANALOGOUS TO TUESDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. COURTESY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT, HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE WITHIN THE 70S
TO 80S (LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND).
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY TO STRONG
WINDS AND A COOLING TREND AS A TROUBLESOME, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HANGS AROUND. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY IN AND
NEAR THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO A
PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE ALSO PRODUCES A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS, 70S FOR MOST, AND 80S IN MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE KEEPS BREEZY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE/
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING PLAINS. FRIDAY SEES A SIMILAR SET
UP TO THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKING AN APPROACH TO OUR
REGION, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SAME PROBLEMATIC AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, ALBEIT A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER. BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY NECESSITATE FURTHER
FIRE WEATHER AND WIND PRODUCTS IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AS
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH CONDITIONS INCREASES.
THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, GIVING WINDS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION, WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY WARM INTO THE 60S. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOOKS TO RETURN SATURDAY, FINALLY GIVING US A
BREAK FROM OUR STRETCH OF ELEVATED WINDS. COOLER AIR SETS IN SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN HIGHS WITHIN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
A TOUCH NEXT MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, NOT A SINGLE FRONT WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE US WITH SOME MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH THIS ISSUANCE, BUT BLDU AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS MAY BE AMENDED INTO TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
INCREASE. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE BY THE LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40KTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT CNM/HOB. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, UPPER TRANS PECOS, GAINES COUNTY, AND
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SLOW-PROGRESSING
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL PRODUCE STRONG, WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON, ERCS
ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO RANGE WITHIN THE 50TH-74TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
OUR REGION, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE COMING DAYS.
THIS SHALL COINCIDE WITH NEAR TO BELOW CRITICAL MINRH VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH, THERE IS A RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT OVER THESE AREAS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO SEE A SIMILAR SET UP AS
TODAY, ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING IS LIKELY OVER SIMILAR AREAS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS BEING THE CASE, FURTHER FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. WE SHALL CONTINUE
MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 83 45 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 75 43 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 88 52 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 50 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 64 41 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 75 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 79 37 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 82 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 81 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 81 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR ANDREWS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-
EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-LOVING-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WINKLER.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN CULBERSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ANDREWS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-GAINES-LOVING-
REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-
SOUTHERN LEA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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