777
FXUS64 KMAF 180434
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1034 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
WINDS TO THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARES, THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND
RESPECTIVE ADJACENT PLAINS/FOOTHILLS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
- AREAS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WILL ALSO BE AT RISK OF
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO, BRINGING EARTH, WIND, AND FIRE TO
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY. INDEED, CARLSBAD CAVERNS
WAS THE FIRST TO HIT HIGH WIND AND AN RFTI OF 6 AT 1430Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. DESPITE VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT MIXING SOMEWHAT, A WINDY DAY IS STILL ON TAP
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST TEXAS, WITH
INCREASED WESTERLIES ADDING A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS, WHICH SHOULD TOP OUT AN AVERAGE OF OVER 15 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS
FORECAST, AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
BEGINNING WITH A PAC FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET, BUT MOMENTUM WILL KEEP
THEM GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE EVENING, AS A 35-45 KT 850
MB JET PERSISTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS JUST OVER 10 F ABOVE NORMAL, ALTHOUGH ~ 5 F
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE PAC FRONT.
WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES, FOR A
DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY, ONLY A LITTLE COOLER AND NOT AS WINDY, AS THE
TROUGH LOOKS TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN TODAY'S TROUGH. AS A
RESULT, WE'VE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPES,
DELAWARES, AND IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM PLAINS. A FEW ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED, AS WELL, BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN UPGRADE/ISSUE THOSE
WHEN THE CURRENT ONES EXPIRE, SO AS TO MINIMIZE SOWING CONFUSION.
CONSIDERING ALREADY DRY SOILS IN PLACE, DRYING OUT FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON, BLDU PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED, AS WELL. HIGHS WILL DROP ~
5-6 F FROM TODAY'S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE 700 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE GUADALUPES DOES
NOT LET UP, REMAINING AROUND 90M/200NM. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT W/THE
NAM MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE, WHICH STAYS STRONG ALL NIGHT. THIS
MIXING WILL NEGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES,
YIELDING OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S..
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS CONTINUES THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING. THIS, COUPLED WITH OUR
PROXIMITY TO A JET OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, YIELDS ANOTHER DAY OF
GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-
MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH 80S IN NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. FRIDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FRIDAY WILL
BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ANY CASE, FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL CONTINUE
TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WIND PRODUCTS (PARTICULARLY FOR
THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT REQUIRED WIND PRODUCTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD). ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS, THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS, AND
GAINES COUNTY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT YIELDS NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON (LOW-TO-MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
70S IN FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE). IN ADDITION TO
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, IT ALSO APPEARS THAT WINDS GRADUALLY
DECLINE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR-NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS WELL. BROAD RIDGING ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE PLAINS AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR HAS RETURNED AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. COULD STILL
SEE A GUST NEAR 30 KTS AT KCNM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO DUE TO
BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON
WITH MOST TERMINALS SEEING 25-30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY
AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS, THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS, THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND
GAINES COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND IN/AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. MIN RHS IN
THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO NEAR-CRITICAL OR CRITICAL
LEVELS (NEAR OR BELOW 15%). AS A RESULT, THE RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUED PREVIOUSLY REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO IT. WEDNESDAY'S FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO REMAINS
UNCHANGED, THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY (> 90% CONFIDENCE) NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TONIGHT'S FORECAST PACKAGE.
WINDS DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RELATIVE TO TODAY AND
TOMORROW. NEVERTHELESS, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS,
LOCATIONS WITH PARTICULARLY DRY FUELS (THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS, UPPER TRANS-PECOS, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND GAINES COUNTY) MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ON THESE DAYS. A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 45 75 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 43 72 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 52 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 51 80 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 40 62 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 38 70 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 37 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 47 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 47 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 44 76 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM
CST /9 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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