080
FXUS64 KMAF 180932
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 332 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS CONTINUED PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS WINDS TO THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARES, THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, AND RESPECTIVE ADJACENT PLAINS/FOOTHILLS TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- AREAS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WILL ALSO BE AT RISK OF
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS THANKS TO A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ONE OF WHICH SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY NEAR
THE GREAT LAKE REGION, HEADED NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY LARGELY CLEARED OUR
REGION BY NOW, BUT SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL OR
EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENTLY, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY REACH THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND THE BIG BEND. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, STRONG WINDS REMAIN IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES ON THE HEELS OF THE ONE DEPARTING. THE JET CORE OF
THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO LIE OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING, MAINTAINING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. THUS, A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS AGAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS FROM MID
MORNING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 80 MPH. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONG IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARES. THESE AREAS WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY
STARTING FROM MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS IN EDDY
COUNTY AND EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY
GUST UP TO 55 MPH, WHILE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN LEA
COUNTY AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY, STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO ISSUES WITH BLOWING DUST AND A
RESULTANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. LIKEWISE, STRONG WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE PROMPTED ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS, AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, EVENTUALLY PUSHING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS THURSDAY TOP OUT IN
THE 60S OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS,
70S FOR MOST, AND 80S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. DESPITE THE FRONT,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS KEEPS THE
TROUBLESOME JET CORE NEARBY AND LEADS TO ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
CONFINED TO THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, THUS THE CONTINUATION
OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL FIRE
PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SIMILAR SET UP TO THURSDAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A JET CORE SHALL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY. OUR PROXIMITY TO THIS JET CORE KEEPS
WINDS ELEVATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS
MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ALL THE WHILE, DRY
CONDITIONS SHALL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONG WINDS. AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS INCREASES, ADDITIONAL FIRE PRODUCTS MAY BE ISSUED
FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, OUR STRETCH OF STRONG WINDS AND ENHANCED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKS TO COME TO AN END. THE SHORTWAVE THAT
CAUSED FRIDAY'S WINDS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S, ACCOMPANIED BY CALMER WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S SUNDAY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING GIVES
WAY TO RIDGING. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES REBOUND MAINLY INTO THE 60S,
THEN INTO THE 70S TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR HAS RETURNED AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. COULD STILL
SEE A GUST NEAR 30 KTS AT KCNM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO DUE TO
BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON
WITH MOST TERMINALS SEEING 25-30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS, THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND GAINES COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IN/AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MINRHS IN THESE AREAS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR-CRITICAL OR CRITICAL LEVELS
(NEAR OR BELOW 15%) THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RELATIVE TO TODAY AND
TOMORROW. NEVERTHELESS, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS,
LOCATIONS WITH PARTICULARLY DRY FUELS (THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS, UPPER TRANS-PECOS, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND GAINES COUNTY) MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ON THESE DAYS. A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 46 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 72 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 81 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 81 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 63 41 57 40 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 70 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 71 36 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 47 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 74 47 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 76 44 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 10
PM CST /9 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN
LEA.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29
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