325
FXUS64 KMAF 182001
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARES, THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND RESPECTIVE
ADJACENT PLAINS/FOOTHILLS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- AREAS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WILL ALSO BE AT RISK OF
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AS WELL AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. MEANWHILE, AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
IS EVIDENT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA, PARTICULARLY IN THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS (WHERE WIND PRODUCTS ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING). THE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALSO
MEAN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATIONS AS YESTERDAY (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS). HOWEVER, LAST NIGHT'S WEAK COLD FRONT WILL AT LEAST
MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE, WITH 80S IN
THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS TONIGHT
LIKEWISE BOTTOM OUT A BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT'S (GENERALLY LOW-TO-
MID 40S, WITH 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO).
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AMPLIFIED FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY TOMORROW, THEY APPEAR RELATIVELY LIGHTER OVERALL THAN TODAY
AND YESTERDAY. THAT BEING SAID, A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS,
AND ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
SURROUNDING PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PUSHED INTO OUR AREA BY THE TROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH ONCE AGAIN
KNOCKS A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF TOMORROW'S HIGHS AND TOMORROW
NIGHT'S LOWS RELATIVE TO TODAY'S.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE ATTENDANT JET, ANOTHER DAY OF WARM,
DRY, AND GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY'S, ALBEIT A BIT STRONGER THANKS TO THE RELATIVE
PROXIMITY OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE NEED FOR FURTHER WIND AND FIRE PRODUCTS ON THIS DAY. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE PREVALENT SATURDAY (LOW 70S IN
TYPICAL WARM SPOTS). CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION/UPSLOPING
EASTERLY WINDS KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S SUNDAY.
WHILE WINDS MAY BE A TOUCH BREEZY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (10-20 MPH),
THEY WILL NEVERTHELESS BE LIGHTER OVERALL THAN THOSE OF THE
PRECEDING DAYS. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND, AND A WARMING TREND COMMENCES BY MONDAY. THOUGH MONDAY'S
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR-NORMAL, BY TUESDAY MUCH OF THE AREA
JUMPS BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WINDS
EXPECTED AT CNM/HOB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AT OTHER TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS, THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, AND GAINES COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS.
MEANWHILE, RHS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY MINIMIZING IN THE 10-15% RANGE FOR THESE AREAS. AS A
RESULT, THE RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED PREVIOUSLY REMAINS IN EFFECT,
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO IT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
THURSDAY, BUT DECREASE RELATIVE TO TODAY AND YESTERDAY. THIS,
COUPLED WITH BORDERLINE MIN RHS, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, HAVE HELD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS YET, BUT A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE DEEMED NECESSARY FOR TOMORROW DURING TONIGHT'S
FORECAST UPDATE. WINDS FRIDAY LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN THURSDAY'S,
AND MIN RHS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER (IN THE 10-15% RANGE). BECAUSE
OF THIS, ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RED FLAG WARNINGS
TODAY AND YESTERDAY (WHERE FUELS ARE RELATIVELY DRIER). FRIDAY
NIGHT, A FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS YIELDS
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL (ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS) HELP REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 47 72 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 45 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 50 85 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 47 77 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 41 59 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 42 69 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 35 70 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 48 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 47 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 45 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10
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