641
FXUS64 KMAF 191730
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1130 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE/
DELAWARES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- DRY, STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER TODAY, PROMPTING A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS, AND THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ACCOMPANIED BY A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES. AT PRESENT, THE JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER
TROUGH RESIDES OVER NEW MEXICO, SPANNING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARES AND SURROUNDING PLAINS. AS SUCH, A HIGH WIND
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 75 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SUCH WINDS MAY ALSO KICK UP SOME BLOWING DUST, LEADING TO A
OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. DRY, GUSTY WINDS KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED, BUT NOT TO THE SAME DEGREE AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, PROMPTING A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OVER
SIMILAR AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS, MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING, THOUGH
SHOULD LARGELY STAY NEAR TO JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DESPITE THE FRONT, DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE 60S
IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS, 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, AND 80S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE 40S.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST IN A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES
THAT HAVE BROUGHT WINDY CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION THIS WEEK. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK COMPARED TO THURSDAY'S. CONSEQUENTLY, WINDS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY'S. THIS SHALL KEEP A STRONG JET
CORE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION, BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 70 MPH. WINDS MAY MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY'S.
GIVEN WARM, DRY, AND GUSTY CONDITIONS, FRIDAY FEATURES A RENEWED CONCERN
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH SHALL BE
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN FOR FRIDAY. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES!
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT LOOKS TO SWEEP INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CALMER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SLUMP MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
REACH THE 60S, THEN PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER 20S (NORTHERN COUNTIES)
AND 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
SUNDAY'S HIGHS TO HOVER WITHIN THE 50S TO 60S. THE ADVANCING UPPER
RIDGE PROMOTES A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO A NEW WORK WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PREDOMINANTLY CREST IN THE 60S MONDAY, 70S
TUESDAY, THEN 80S WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE RESULT OF LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MORE DETAILS TO
FOLLOW IN THE COMING DAYS!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LEAVE MENTION OF BLDU OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY BLOWING DUST, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WESTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN START TO BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS, AND THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THESE LOCATIONS.
COINCIDING RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 15-25% BY THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE OVERLY THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS FRIDAY LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY'S, AND MIN RHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LOWER (IN THE 10-15% RANGE). BECAUSE OF THIS,
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RED FLAG WARNINGS DURING
PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT, A FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS YIELDS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL (ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS) HELP
REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 42 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 67 42 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 83 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 75 47 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 57 41 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 67 40 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 68 35 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 45 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 70 45 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 71 42 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
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