469
FXUS64 KMAF 191915
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- GUSTY WINDS PERSIST TODAY AND TOMORROW. PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TODAY. NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SHORTWAVE (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW) THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MOVING OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. GIVEN THE
EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SHORTWAVE, OVERALL
WINDS TODAY WILL BE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, THE ONLY WIND PRODUCT CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IS THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, WHICH RUNS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, THOUGH WINDS TODAY WILL BE JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE, THEY WILL STILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY (80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). WINDS
TAPER DOWN TONIGHT, AND LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
(MID-TO-UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FRIDAY, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SINCE THIS
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR AREA, TOMORROW'S
WINDS LOOK STRONGER OVERALL THAN TODAY'S. THE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED
LAST NIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIND PRODUCTS MAY BE DEEMED
NECESSARY BY TONIGHT'S FORECAST UPDATE. GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
TOMORROW'S HIGHS END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY'S. NEVERTHELESS, FRIDAY'S
SURFACE LOW MANAGES TO SEND A STRONGER FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SETS UP A PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY
(70S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE). OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT BOTTOM OUT
INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT 40S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY, NEW MEXICO AND GAINES COUNTY, TEXAS).
TEMPERATURES DROP EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER LIMITS
DAYTIME HEATING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR MOST. A WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK AS CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER OUR REGION. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE HINTS OF THE RETURN OF BREEZY WINDS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. HOWEVER, THESE
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LEAVE MENTION OF BLDU OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY BLOWING DUST, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WESTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN START TO BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, PORTIONS
OF THE TRANS-PECOS, AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THESE LOCATIONS. COINCIDING RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 15-25%
BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS FRIDAY LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY'S, AND MIN RHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LOWER (IN THE 9-15% RANGE). BECAUSE OF THIS, THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND IS
IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RED FLAG WARNINGS DURING PREVIOUS
DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS YIELDS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL (ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHTER
WINDS) HELP REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 42 75 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 42 68 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 49 84 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 48 79 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 42 59 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 41 68 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 34 70 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 45 74 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 46 73 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 42 74 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13
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