750
FXUS64 KMAF 200813
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 213 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY OVER THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS
WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER NEVADA,
HEADING FOR THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER WA/OR/ID.
THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF EARTH, WIND, AND FIRE AS A
PAC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE. ACCORDING TO THE NAM, THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE SIGNATURE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 700 MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS TIGHTENING UP TO NEAR
85M/200NM BY 21Z. AS SUCH, WE'VE ISSUED WIND PRODUCTS TO COVER THIS,
ONLY OVER A SMALLER AREA THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE ON
TAP TO TOP OUT ~ 8-10 F ABOVE NORMAL, AROUND 2 F WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS TO
RESULT IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
TONIGHT, COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PAC FRONT, AND A
COLD FRONT EVEN ATTEMPTS TO BACKDOOR THE NORTHEAST BEFORE THE FULL
FORCE OF THE PAC FRONT STOPS IT IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS BY AROUND 5 F FROM THIS MORNING'S LOWS, YET
STILL COMING IN ~ 3-5 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
A STRONGER, SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY, TAKING HIGHS DOWN
OVER 10 F FROM THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS, WHERE THEY'LL END UP 3-5 F
BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. DESPITE THIS, THE BRIGHT SIDE WILL BE A
RESPITE FROM THE INCREASED WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OF THE
PAST WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS BY TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH WARMER TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ENHANCES ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES (THE
FEBRUARY 25 RECORD FOR MIDLAND IS 86 SET IN 2009).
HIGHS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA (EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE) THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
ALSO BE MILD FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
DESPITE MODERATE TO EXCELLENT RECOVERY THIS MORNING, INCREASED
SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST 20-FT WINDS AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
MOST OF THE FWA. THESE PARAMETERS WILL COMBINE TO YIELD RFTIS OF 4-7
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS/VAN HORN CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU. GIVEN FORECAST ERCS
OF UP TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE IN THESE AREAS, ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IS LIKELY, AND WE'VE ISSUED A RFW TO
COVER THIS. CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL END W/THE ARRIVAL OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 39 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 70 35 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 85 49 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 80 43 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 61 36 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 69 35 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 71 32 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 40 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 74 41 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 75 38 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN CULBERSON.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL LEA-NORTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99
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