914
FXUS64 KMAF 070917
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
317 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGION. A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (GENERALLY 20-50%)
CONTINUE FROM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
RADAR IS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME CAMS WERE SHOWING THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN THOUGH VERY
LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MOVED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS
PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. ELEVATED MOISTURE EXISTS ALOFT AND
ENOUGH LIFT IS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT AND NEARBY UPPER JET MAX
TO CAUSE THE STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
STORM THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT FILTERS SOUTH AND STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
NORTH OF I-10, 70S AND 80S SOUTH OF I-10 TO THE RIO GRANDE.
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OVER WEST
TEXAS, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SLIGHTLY AND REDUCING RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH OF A RETURN FLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. THE LACK OF SURFACE FEATURES CREATES
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION, BUT THE APPROACHING
SOURCE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOW REACHES EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. MANY
WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL THOUGH A LUCKY FEW COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF
ONE QUARTER INCH. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PASSES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AGAIN THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LOW ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A RETURN OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS STAYING NORTHERLY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS AROUND AND JUST
AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 40 71 53 / 10 0 20 10
CARLSBAD 65 39 70 45 / 0 0 20 0
DRYDEN 76 51 69 55 / 10 10 40 10
FORT STOCKTON 69 45 68 51 / 0 10 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 58 42 63 49 / 0 0 20 0
HOBBS 64 36 71 46 / 0 0 20 10
MARFA 68 36 68 42 / 0 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 42 70 53 / 0 10 20 10
ODESSA 65 42 70 53 / 0 10 20 10
WINK 68 41 69 49 / 0 10 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
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