527
FXUS64 KMAF 080456
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1056 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA DEL NORTE, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO HOME, MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE RIO GRANDE, AND
HEADED TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. CONVECTION THAT FORMED ALONG/BEHIND
THIS FEATURE BROUGHT A LITTLE RELIEF, MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. MRMS SUGGESTS UP TO AROUND 2" MAY
HAVE FALLEN IN SE GLASSCOCK COUNTY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT, GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PERSIST, ALLOWING CAA TO BRING OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS DOWN TO ~ 3-5 F
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF I-10, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SENDS SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS UP
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SUNDAY, SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK TO RETURN FLOW, PUSHING A WEAK
WARM FRONT NORTH AND ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL COMBINE W/UPSLOPE FLOW TO INCREASE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE RICHER MOISTURE. RETURN
FLOW WILL INCREASE THICKNESSES, ADDING ~ 2-4 F TO AFTERNOON HIGHS,
BRINGING THEM BACK ABOVE NORMAL, ALBEIT ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ON AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT, CAMS TAPER OFF CONVECTION TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR NORTHWEST, BUT REMAIN CLOUDY SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK, 25 KT LLJ TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER 10
F ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS IN FOR THE BEGINNING THROUGH
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BOTH IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS BOTH INDICATE
THAT A CLOSED UPPER STORM SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER BAJA CA WILL
DEVELOP EAST INTO NORTHERN MX THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. NBM CURRENTLY INDICATES MOST
LIKELY TIMING MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TO MEDIUM
RAIN PROBABILITIES (35% TO 50%) ARE INDICATED AS WELL FOR REGIONS
NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS RIVER MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY AMIDST
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND GULF WILL RISE MORE OR INTO THE 80S F, 70S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS TIME, SPC ONLY HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY STRONGER STORMS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S F FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES INTO UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S F EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO
TERRELL COUNTY AND RIO GRANDE BASIN, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S F LOWS
LIMITED TO MARFA PLATEAU, BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY, AND NORTHERN
SE NM PLAINS. THESE WARM LOWS, WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN AT
LEAST A FEW MONTHS, WILL AGAIN BE COURTESY OF PERSISTENT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING IN HUMID AIR THAT LIMITS OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S TO 50S F
TO THE EAST OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND INTO THE 30S TO 40S F
FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOSED UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHERN MX OPENS UP INTO A WAVE AND PROGRESSES FASTER TO THE
EAST, MERGING WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT
BE FAST ENOUGH TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM (35% TO 50%) RAIN PROBABILITIES LINGERING OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO
TERRELL COUNTY. HOWEVER, THE FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
HASTEN A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST, ENABLING
PROGRESSION OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS. THIS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S TO 30S F RANGE. TO THE EAST, THE PROGRESSION OF DRIER
AIR WILL BE DELAYED DESPITE BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AREAWIDE. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AIR IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S F WILL
REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE BASIN FOR TUESDAY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S F WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO RIO GRANDE BASIN AND
30S F ELSEWHERE AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH AND REMAIN GUSTY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS DECREASES BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT ENHANCES OVERNIGHT
COOLING, BUT KEEPS MAINTAINS MECHANICAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT LIMITS OVERNIGHT COOLING, YIELDING LOWS STILL ONLY
FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S F FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO
TERRELL COUNTY, STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S F MARFA PLATEAU INTO
CULBERSON COUNTY, SE NM PLAINS, AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S F SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU AND
PEAKS OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MAINTAIN CAA AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F NORTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN, AND 70S TO 80S F FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN
INTO TERRELL COUNTY. COOLER LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S F RANGE AND
NEAR FREEZING FOR SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU, PEAKS OF
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE
40S TO 50S F RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
VEER BACK TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AN INCREASING ZONAL MID TO UPPER AIR
PATTERN AND RENEWED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REMAIN LOW AND LARGELY BELOW 30F BRINGS
A RETURN TO THE MORE FAMILIAR LATE WINTER WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WE'VE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY FOR LATE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F AND 90S F ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND LOWS LARGELY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERLY BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS MOST TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 40 72 54 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD 67 39 71 45 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN 77 51 69 54 / 0 10 30 10
FORT STOCKTON 69 45 70 51 / 0 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 59 42 64 49 / 0 0 10 0
HOBBS 65 37 72 46 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA 69 36 68 41 / 0 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 42 71 54 / 0 0 20 10
ODESSA 66 43 70 54 / 0 10 20 10
WINK 68 42 69 49 / 0 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11
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