999
FXUS64 KMAF 081108
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY, THEN WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS MORNING WEST
OF THE PECOS RIVER THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING VERY WELL. THERE
IS COOL AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SO INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND
LIKELY WEAK SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OR INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING A
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND.
850MB WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN ADVECTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH PEAK HEATING.
HIGHS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, THEN INCREASE BACK INTO THE 80S MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW INCREASES RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE
FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION, SO A GENERAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS AGREE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE SO CHANCES
OF ANYONE GETTING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ARE LOW. THIS COULD CHANGE
LATE TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE
IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. FINALLY HAVING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION, WE MAY SEE A LINE OF STORMS PRODUCING DECENT RAIN IN
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE DEPARTING LOW ALSO USHERS IN A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW TO END THE
WEEK THAT BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALSO CAUSE
TEMPS TO SPIKE BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S IN THE PERMIAN BASIN BY THE WEEKEND.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 53 83 61 / 10 10 10 30
CARLSBAD 72 45 82 52 / 10 0 20 30
DRYDEN 71 54 81 61 / 30 0 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 72 52 84 61 / 20 0 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 66 50 74 50 / 10 0 20 20
HOBBS 73 46 82 53 / 10 10 20 40
MARFA 70 42 78 45 / 10 10 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 53 83 61 / 10 10 10 30
ODESSA 72 53 82 61 / 10 10 10 30
WINK 72 49 83 56 / 10 10 20 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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