502
FXUS64 KMAF 081713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY, THEN WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS MORNING WEST
OF THE PECOS RIVER THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING VERY WELL. THERE
IS COOL AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SO INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND
LIKELY WEAK SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OR INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING A
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND.
850MB WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN ADVECTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH PEAK HEATING.
HIGHS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, THEN INCREASE BACK INTO THE 80S MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW INCREASES RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE
FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION, SO A GENERAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS AGREE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE SO CHANCES
OF ANYONE GETTING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ARE LOW. THIS COULD CHANGE
LATE TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE
IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. FINALLY HAVING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION, WE MAY SEE A LINE OF STORMS PRODUCING DECENT RAIN IN
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE DEPARTING LOW ALSO USHERS IN A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW TO END THE
WEEK THAT BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALSO CAUSE
TEMPS TO SPIKE BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S IN THE PERMIAN BASIN BY THE WEEKEND.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TERMINALS FROM BEGINNING OF PERIOD
UNTIL 07Z-09Z. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REGIONS
OF FOG/MIST DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO OR BELOW MVFR AFTER
07Z-09Z BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR TERMINALS OVER W TX NORTHEAST
OF PECOS RIVER AND CONTINUING UNTIL 13Z-16Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR TERMINALS FROM BEGINNING OF PERIOD INTO
07Z-09Z, THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR TERMINALS ON SE NM
PLAINS INTO PERMIAN BASIN AFTER 07Z-09Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 53 83 61 82 / 10 10 30 30
CARLSBAD 45 82 52 74 / 0 20 30 30
DRYDEN 54 81 61 86 / 0 10 20 30
FORT STOCKTON 52 84 61 83 / 0 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 50 74 50 62 / 0 20 20 40
HOBBS 46 82 53 76 / 10 20 40 30
MARFA 42 78 45 70 / 10 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 53 83 61 80 / 10 10 30 30
ODESSA 53 82 61 79 / 10 10 30 30
WINK 49 83 56 77 / 10 20 30 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94
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