802
FXUS64 KMAF 081932
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 232 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER BAJA CA
THAT IS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST INTO NORTHERN MX EARLY THIS WEEK.
BEFORE THEN, DESPITE NEAR SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY TODAY, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNDER WEAK RIDGING. THIS
ALLOWS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE FROM THE 20S F
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND SE NM PLAINS, 30S AND 40S F SOUTHEAST
INTO THE 40S AND 50S F THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WHILE
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND REMAIN IN
THE 60S TO 70S F RANGE, APART FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F FOR
GUADALUPES AND UPPER 70S F NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. TONIGHT, UNDER
CONTINUING LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES, LOWS SETTLE INTO THE 50S F, 40S F WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS, WITH REGIONS OF MIST/FOG OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU DEVELOPING BY EARLY MORNING. A SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL DELAY MEDIUM
(35% TO 50%) RAIN PROBABILITIES FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL TUESDAY, IN
CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS MODELS DEPICTING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BY
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AGAIN BACK TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AND MAINTAIN
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INT THE 40S AND 50S F APART FROM 30S F OVER
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND WITH FASTER ADVECTION OF A MORE HUMID
AIR MASS FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND GULF WITH THE BREEZIER WINDS
MONDAY, HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F, MID TO UPPER 70S F
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
THIS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVENT
LOWS FROM FALLING LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 50S CENTRAL BREWSTER
AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND MOST OF SE NM
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, MID TO UPPER 40S F MARFA
PLATEAU AND BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY INTO NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS,
AND LOWER 60S F FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN INTO
TERRELL COUNTY AND RIO GRANDE BASIN. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
PROBABILITIES (25% TO 35%) HIGHEST OVER SE NM PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH HIGH-RES CAMS ONLY DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM OPENS INTO A MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC WAVE AND PIVOTS TO THE EAST FASTER ON TUESDAY,
INCREASED MID TO UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, FOLLOWED BY A WINDY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWING SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT PASSAGES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM SYSTEM. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
BAJA/SONORA MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO LIFT
TOWARD WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND PACIFIC FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE POPS
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 30-60% OVER THESE AREAS. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE TRANS PECOS REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE ADVANCING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY,
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A SEMINOLE-ODESSA-SANDERSON LINE AND A SLIGHT (2 OF 5)
RISK CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES EAST OF A SNYDER-BIG LAKE-
DRYDEN LINE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S OVER THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR 80S ALONG THE
BIG BEND/PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UNDERNEATH
A MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RANGE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. A WARMING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
SOME READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS REMAIN MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TERMINALS FROM BEGINNING OF PERIOD
UNTIL 07Z-09Z. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REGIONS
OF FOG/MIST DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO OR BELOW MVFR AFTER
07Z-09Z BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR TERMINALS OVER W TX NORTHEAST
OF PECOS RIVER AND CONTINUING UNTIL 13Z-16Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR TERMINALS FROM BEGINNING OF PERIOD INTO
07Z-09Z, THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR TERMINALS ON SE NM
PLAINS INTO PERMIAN BASIN AFTER 07Z-09Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 53 83 61 82 / 10 10 30 30
CARLSBAD 45 82 52 74 / 0 20 30 30
DRYDEN 54 81 61 86 / 0 10 20 30
FORT STOCKTON 52 84 61 83 / 0 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 50 74 50 62 / 0 20 20 40
HOBBS 46 82 53 76 / 10 20 40 30
MARFA 42 78 45 70 / 10 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 53 83 61 80 / 10 10 30 30
ODESSA 53 82 61 79 / 10 10 30 30
WINK 49 83 56 77 / 10 20 30 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94
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