120
FXUS64 KMAF 091749
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1249 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE WARMTH RETURNS FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOISTURE SURGING BACK WEST TONIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SEEN UP THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION, A LOW CLOUD DECK IS MOVING
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE LOWER
60S THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AIDED BY THE WARMTH
THIS MORNING BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY.
HIGHS REACH THE 80S FOR MOST WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY
REDUCE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM AN
APPROACHING LOW COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING
GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
TOMORROW WHEN A DRYLINE DEVELOPS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR
TWO COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE STORMS MOVE EAST TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, BEGINNING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THAT
PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND QUITE PLEASANT. AFTERWARD,
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS QUICKLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND THAT MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY RAIN TO DEVELOP IN OUR
CWA, BUT A COLD FRONT COULD AT LEAST BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR TO IFR THRESHOLDS AROUND KHOB AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT S/SW AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS OVER MOST TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TSRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 60 83 51 / 0 10 60 40
CARLSBAD 84 50 76 52 / 0 20 30 0
DRYDEN 82 61 86 56 / 20 20 50 30
FORT STOCKTON 86 61 83 54 / 10 20 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS 75 51 63 46 / 0 20 30 0
HOBBS 82 53 78 48 / 0 20 30 10
MARFA 79 44 72 39 / 20 20 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 84 60 82 52 / 0 10 40 20
ODESSA 83 60 81 52 / 0 20 40 20
WINK 83 56 79 51 / 0 20 30 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 11 PM CDT /10 PM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-LOWER BREWSTER
COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21
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