009
FXUS64 KMAF 091954
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARDS, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, THE
VAN HORN CORRIDOR, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA
PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOCATED NEAR THE BAJA REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
MEANWHILE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT S/SW WINDS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA AND
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MOST. THE CANOPY OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PIVOTING INTO FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WITHIN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE
OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW
(10-20%) OVER THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD FAR WEST TEXAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CAMS
SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING SPREADING INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S. WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THESE LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL
HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND VAN HORN CORRIDOR/UPPER TRANS
PECOS REGION ALONG THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. ALL THE
ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LAMESA-MIDLAND/ODESSA-FORT
STOCKTON- SANDERSON LINE WHERE SPC HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK (1 TO 2 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2500 J/KG, AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE EASTERN BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. SOME LOW CURVATURE EVIDENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO
OR TWO OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A LINE OVER FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO OUR EAST BY AROUND 7-8 PM CDT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT WITH
THE ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS
TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON HIGH WINDS
IMPACTING THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. WIND SPEEDS UP TO
25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE ALSO FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE VAN HORN/HIGHWAY
54 CORRIDOR, UPPER TRANS PECOS, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU,
AND EVEN THE BIG BEND ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA, EXCEPT 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW LOCATIONS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT BRINGS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 80S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THURSDAY'S HIGHS END UP SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY'S, ALBEIT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. NEVERTHELESS,
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS OUR AREA ENDS UP UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SINCE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, RAIN CHANCES STAY NEAR ZERO.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR TO IFR THRESHOLDS AROUND KHOB AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT S/SW AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS OVER MOST TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TSRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 60 84 49 73 / 10 40 30 10
CARLSBAD 50 76 52 76 / 20 30 10 0
DRYDEN 61 85 54 84 / 20 40 30 0
FORT STOCKTON 60 84 54 78 / 10 40 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 50 63 46 68 / 20 30 0 0
HOBBS 53 78 48 72 / 20 30 10 0
MARFA 43 72 38 73 / 10 20 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 82 51 73 / 10 50 20 0
ODESSA 59 81 51 73 / 10 50 10 0
WINK 55 78 51 76 / 10 40 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 11 PM CDT /10 PM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-LOWER BREWSTER
COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...21
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