644
FXUS64 KMAF 101122
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, THE
VAN HORN CORRIDOR, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA
PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WILL PUSH
DRY AIR EAST, CREATING A DRYLINE IN THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN THAT
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE LOW WILL
COMBINE TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES
APPROACH 2KJ/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KTS SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE WHEN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OCCURS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SO KNOWING WHERE ITS POSITION IS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT
AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL BE EAST OF MIDLAND
PUTTING OUR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES IN THE MAIN THREAT AREA. STORMS
COULD ALSO FORM FARTHER WEST IN THE DRIER AIR, CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND WILL STRUGGLE
TO EVEN PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL GIVEN THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REACH THE UPPER 70S TO 80S WHICH IS
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, BECOMING STRONG IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE A
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND DRY AIR
WILL HELP LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S DESPITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CAUSING WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY WHILE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR NEAR NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY REMAINS SEASONAL BEFORE ZONAL, WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS BRING A QUICK RETURN OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPS
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND IT MAY MOVE THROUGH BEFORE PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IFR CIG/VIS HAS
DEVELOPED AT HOB AND IS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA NEAR MAF.
INTERMITTENT IFR CIG/VIS EXPECTED AT HOB/MAF FOR THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS
FAIRLY QUICKLY. AFTERWARD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
WINDS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY 18-00Z.
SCATTERED TS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW EXCEPT AT CNM WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THERE HAS BEEN GOOD MOISTURE RECOVERY THIS MORNING ADDING FUEL
MOISTURE. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN TODAY THOUGH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ONLY
DROP INTO THE 20S PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
DEVELOPING. STILL, VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THAT WILL
ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DRY AIR WEST OF THE
DRYLINE THAT COULD PROVIDE A FIRE IGNITION SOURCE WITH LITTLE
ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL TO MOISTEN FUELS. WINDS DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN AND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW. WINDS DO NOT
FINALLY CALM DOWN UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING ALLEVIATING THE FIRE
THREAT.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 49 72 38 / 60 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 77 52 76 42 / 30 0 0 0
DRYDEN 87 54 84 47 / 40 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 84 53 78 43 / 40 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 64 46 68 42 / 30 0 0 0
HOBBS 78 46 71 36 / 30 0 0 0
MARFA 72 38 72 33 / 20 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 82 51 72 39 / 40 0 0 0
ODESSA 81 51 72 40 / 50 0 0 0
WINK 79 50 75 40 / 40 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1
AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-LOWER
BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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