287
FXUS64 KMAF 110804
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
304 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 221 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE
FIRE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAKING
GOOD OUTDOOR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SOUTH REACHING THE PERMIAN
BASIN BY AROUND SUNRISE AND MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK
BACK UP BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN
NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S FOR MOST. A
FEW 80S WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY RECIRCULATING COOL AIR EAST OF THE AREA AND KEEPING HIGHS
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S...SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AND A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE A QUICK
WARM UP HITS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12Z, THEN
ULTIMATELY NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY.
THE INCREASING WINDS INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER THREAT TODAY THOUGH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT SO CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY REDUCE THE FIRE
THREAT.
FRIDAY SEES THE FIRE DANGER INCREASING AGAIN MAINLY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES THAT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES DRIVE UP THE RFTI BUT THE LACK OF A WIND
COMPONENT SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE THREAT TO ELEVATED THUS CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 69 36 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 40 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 82 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 75 41 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 67 40 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 69 34 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 72 32 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 70 38 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 70 38 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 73 39 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-SCURRY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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