887
FXUS64 KMAF 111850
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE
FIRE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAKING
GOOD OUTDOOR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS, LEAVING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER
DRY, ALMOST MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS INTRUDING UPON THE AREA, AND WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY 2-3 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
TONIGHT, SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
PROMOTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
THURSDAY, SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK AROUND TO RETURN FLOW UNDER DRY,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND THICKNESSES BEGIN INCREASING FOR A
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. UNFORTUNATELY, IT WILL START OUT SLOW, WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONLY A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A 35 KT LLJ WILL KEEP MIXING IN PLAY, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ~ 6-8 F ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S (IN AREAS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE AND PECOS RIVERS) FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS
SHALL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ASIDE FROM WARM TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW. UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO FEATURE BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, REMAINING
SO AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN SATURDAY, WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS FALLING TO THE 30S AT MANY
LOCATIONS (40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). BY MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY
BRINGS TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
GUSTY, DUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
AFTER WHICH THEY'LL VEER TO EASTERLY, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
THURSDAY, THEY'LL VEER FARTHER TO SOUTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE HAVE LEAD TO AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT, THOUGH MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT, CURVING THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS. THUS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE REGION, AND IS VALID THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT.
FRIDAY SEES THE FIRE DANGER INCREASING AGAIN MAINLY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES THAT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES DRIVE UP THE RFTI BUT THE LACK OF A WIND
COMPONENT SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE THREAT TO ELEVATED THUS CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 36 72 46 88 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 40 76 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 44 73 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 41 77 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 40 69 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 34 72 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 32 72 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 38 72 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 38 72 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 39 75 44 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARTIN-MIDLAND-
MITCHELL-SCURRY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page