697
FXUS64 KMAF 130523
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A RATHER PEDESTRIAN FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. WV
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO UNDER DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. RETURN FLOW WILL RESUME THIS
AFTERNOON, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ON TAP TO CLIMB TO NORMAL, IF NOT
A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE.
TONIGHT, DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, A 30 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP, KEEPING MIXING IN PLAY AND OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS 7-9 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
FRIDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST, AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL INCREASE THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 80S, AVERAGING ALMOST 15 F ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY MAY THAN MID MARCH.
FRIDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE EAST UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER, INCREASING OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO AROUND 10 F ABOVE NORMAL, OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S COURTESY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY. SATURDAY'S
FORECAST HIGH OF 92F AT MAF MAY CHALLENGE THE 1989 RECORD OF 89F.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY, WHEN A TROUGH DIVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
THAT STEERS BREEZY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS SHOW A MOUNTAIN WAVE
SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE SATURDAY, WHICH
WOULD POSSIBLY BRING WESTERLY WINDS NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF, SHALL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
RAISES CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, BE ON THE LOOKOUT IN THE CASE
PRODUCTS FOR THESE ARE ISSUED WITHIN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARM INTO THE 80S FOR MOST, WITH
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND THOSE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE 70S. THAT SAID, ACTUAL HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HEAVILY
DEPEND ON THE COLD FRONT'S LOCATION. SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN AND WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED,
WITH QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR TO BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS FOR CALMER
WINDS MONDAY, ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS TEMPERATURES
SETTLE INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. BY TUESDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEPART AND OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO GET INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE
70S TUESDAY, THEN INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY. NO RAINFALL IS IN STORE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 48 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 86 48 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 88 50 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 55 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 76 53 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 84 47 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 80 41 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 49 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 85 50 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 86 46 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page