723
FXUS64 KMAF 131122
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST LOOKS RATHER QUIET AS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO REMAIN UNDER DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO SOAR BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS (70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, 90S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
RIO GRANDE). LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW-TO-MID 50S CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, WESTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THESE
AREAS, WHILE A PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS MAY EVEN DEVELOP FOR THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 90 DEGREES AT KMAF WOULD
STILL BEAT THE RECORD OF 89 DEGREES FROM 1989. HIGHS AROUND THE
REGION LIKEWISE TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US BEFORE RIDGING RETURNS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE WE ONCE AGAIN SEE HIGHS REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE. SATURDAY NIGHT, GUSTY, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
TO THE WEST OF A STRENGTHENING DRYLINE AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF A N
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION AND COOLING OF THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. LOWS AS A
RESULT ARE ONLY FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU, LOWER TO MID 50S F FOR
CENTRAL BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES INTO MOST OF SE NM PLAINS
AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F
ELSEWHERE. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY SUNDAY AS A JET STREAK OF HIGH WINDS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE CLIPS THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 35 TO 50 MPH
OR MORE MAY NECESSITATE INTRODUCTION OF WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS IN
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. FOR NOW, HAVE NOTED THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS AND REGIONS OF BLOWING DUST SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
INITIALLY DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS, HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE
70S TO 80S F RANGE, UPPER 80S TO MID 90S F ALONG RIO GRANDE INTO
TERRELL COUNTY, AS NORTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN CAA AND A SURGING
COLD FRONT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S F, AND AFTER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
F, SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE TO AT OR
BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY
AND INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO
TERRELL COUNTY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND
CAA CONTINUES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE GUADALUPES INTO
MARFA PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S F ELSEWHERE. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS STILL NEAR FREEZING FOR THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, MARFA
PLATEAU, PECOS RIVER FROM UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO EDDY COUNTY , AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LEA COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN,
WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S F FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
IF LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK WAS THE SUDDEN SHOCK OF MUCH
COLDER WEATHER, THAT SHOCK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THEN FOLLOWED
BY ALMOST AS ABRUPT OF A WARM-UP. BY TUESDAY, HIGHS REBOUND INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S F WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S F RANGE, AND BY NEXT WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE AREA IS
ONCE AGAIN SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S F, 90S F ALONG RIO GRANDE FOR
HIGHS, WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S F FOR LOWS. FURTHER WARMING THEN
LOOKS TO ENSUE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AS WARM
IF NOT WARMER THAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE MID TO UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION INCREASING AGAIN, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK WITH THIS ABRUPT WARM-UP EITHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 9-15 KTS (WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT GUSTS, PARTICULARLY AT HOB)
EXPECTED TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 49 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 86 49 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 90 51 95 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 55 92 62 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 76 53 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 83 48 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 80 43 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 50 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 85 51 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 86 47 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13
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