016
FXUS64 KMAF 131740
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS TO THE GUADALUPE/
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY, PROMPTING A HIGH WIND WATCH.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE HEAT IS ON, AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. WV IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA,
PERSISTING DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME, TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING AS A
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT DEVELOPS, INCREASING
THICKNESSES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 15 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, BUT THIS WILL BE NEGATED BY A 35 KT LLJ THAT WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS AROUND 10 F
ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY, LEESIDE TROUGHING ON THE FRONT RANGE WILL INCREASE
WESTERLIES, DEVELOPING A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE OVER THE GUADALUPE
BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND INCREASING HIGHS ~ 3-4 F OVER TODAY'S
TEMPERATURES. RIVER VALLEYS AND ADJACENT AREAS COULD SEE 90 F FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR, MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE MAY THAN
MID MARCH. WE'VE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARES. ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY, BUT THAT'S TOO FAR
OUT TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN ATTM. BLDU IS A GIVEN, AS SOILS ARE QUITE
PARCHED.
SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO ABATE, AND LOOK TO REMAIN
ELEVATED, AS A 50 KT LLJ OUT OF THE WEST KEEPS MIXING IN PLAY. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A
GOOD 15-20 F ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS, ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER, AND A COLD FRONT START OFF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. WITH THE JET STREAK OF THIS
FEATURE PASSING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION, THEN THE EVENTUAL
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT, WINDS INCREASE AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE
SHALL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. STRONG WINDS WOULD PRODUCE THE RISK OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST AND INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. AS SUCH, BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR
POSSIBLE PRODUCTS OF THE LIKE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF SUNDAY'S FRONT STILL LOOK TO GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE 80S TO 90S (MAINLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE). BEHIND THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES MAX OUT IN THE 70S. AS IT STANDS, THE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO START PUSHING INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINTAINING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES SO.
WINDS LOOK TO CALM DOWN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE CHILLED INTO THE 20S AND 30S, WITH
THE COLDEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY AND OVERALL CALMER WINDS ARE ON
TAP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PREVIOUS DAY'S
COLD FRONT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
(AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER). MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE CHILLY,
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH, AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, LEE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH STEERS
SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN TANDEM, THESE BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S TUESDAY, WIDESPREAD 80S WEDNESDAY, THEN 80S AND 90S THURSDAY.
CLOSING OUT THE WEEK, MANY LOCATIONS COULD BE WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S. NO RAINFALL IS IN SIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST, WITH A HIGH CLOUD OR TWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 49 90 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 49 89 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 51 95 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 55 92 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 53 78 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 48 87 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 43 83 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 50 89 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 51 89 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 47 91 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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