983
FXUS64 KMAF 142035
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
335 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 335 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- A STRONG FRONT CAUSES TEMPERATURES WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE SUNDAY.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
AND REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, FOR THOSE SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. WESTERLY WINDS MAY
APPROACH 35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG
THE BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION AND THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING A RAPID WARMING TREND TUESDAY-FRIDAY. RECORD
WARMTH MAY IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER AREA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
AT 25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY LOW RH
VALUES, AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING RFTI VALUES TO THE 6-8 RANGE
AREAWIDE SUNDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RESULT IN
LOWERED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 58 78 29 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 86 60 80 31 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 93 60 89 39 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 89 63 82 34 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 55 72 30 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 85 54 71 26 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 80 47 77 25 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 88 59 76 31 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 87 59 76 31 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 89 56 80 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-
MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-
REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-
GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-
MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-
UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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