381
FXUS64 KMAF 151126
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE TODAY.
- A POTENT FRONT BRINGS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY MORNING.
- FOLLOWING NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT,
A SHARP WARMING TREND OCCURS FOR THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WINDS THIS MORNING REMAIN ELEVATED, WITH STRONG GUSTS STILL BEING
MEASURED IN AND AROUND THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS THANKS TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. TODAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THE SYSTEM ALSO PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THESE
FACTORS, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY, AND THE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED PREVIOUSLY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKEWISE, THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. JUST HOW MUCH
BLOWING DUST CAN BE EXPECTED STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS
TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED, AND A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY MAY BE DEEMED NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG WINDS YIELD CRITICAL
TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT, MANY
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY MORNING, SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE PLANTS! HIGHS MONDAY END UP BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW-TO-MID 80S BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY, BY
MONDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
HOWEVER, THIS COOLDOWN IS GOING TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. MORE
DETAILS ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION!
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH LINGERING COOLER CONDITIONS BEFORE A RAPID
WARM-UP ENSUES - COURTESY OF NEAR RECORD MID TO UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND REDEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING LEEWARD
OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND INTO SE NM PLAINS ALLOWING
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW. MONDAY NIGHT, LINGERING
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF LATE
WEEKEND'S UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EVEN AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. LOWS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH FROM FORECAST RUNS 24 HOURS PRIOR. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL
COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN ARE STILL ANTICIPATED, WITH MID
30S TO LOWER 40S F RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY AND
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. DESPITE NBM SHOWING LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FROM THE GUADALUPES INTO NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS OF THE MARFA PLATEAU
AND EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU, ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATE A MEDIUM TO
HIGH (55% TO 70%) PROBABILITY OF LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS, WHILE THERE IS ONLY A INDICATION IN NBM AND ENSEMBLES
MEDIUM (35% TO 55%) OF LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S F OVER SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHERN SE NM
PLAINS. LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY,
BEFORE HIGHS QUICKLY RISE FROM THE 50S F MID-MORNING TO 60S AND
70S F EARLY AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S F BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING TUESDAY. THIS QUICK WARMING IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC SW AND
DESERT SW AND BUILDS EAST, IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONGER RAYS
OF THE MID MARCH SUN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA FARTHEST FROM
THE RIDGE. FOLLOWING SUNSET, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S F FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, FINALLY SETTLING INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S F BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SHARP WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK, AND UNUSUALLY WARM TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMIDST RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS 3 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO 3 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK, HIGHS IN THE 80S TO 90S F RANGE
MAKE A REAPPEARANCE. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F, LOWER TO MID
90S F ALONG RIO GRANDE, AND UPPER 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA FARTHEST FROM THE RIDGE FOR
WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S F TO MID 90S F
THURSDAY, WHILE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F WEDNESDAY NIGHT
GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S F ONLY OVER SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS
OF MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S F ELSEWHERE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CORE
OF RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONGEST WEST OF THE AREA, WHEREAS
EFI/SOT INDICATE BUILDING ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS. IN FACT, BY FRIDAY WE ARE SEEING HIGHS IN THE NBM
SHOWING LOWER TO MID 90S F, MID TO UPPER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
AND UPPER 90S F TO TRIPLE DIGITS CLOSEST TO THE RIO GRANDE, EVEN
AS A 20 TO 25 DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS STILL LARGELY FALLING BELOW
60F PERSIST AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BELOW 50F MAINTAIN EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT COOLING. SATURDAY REMAINS
MUCH THE SAME STORY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE MAGNITUDE AND
ANOMALIES - NEAR RECORD WARM HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF MAY THAN MID TO
LATE MARCH, WHILE LOWS LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE 50F AND BELOW 65F.
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT BOTH HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL NEXT
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO CURRENT NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY TABLES. AS
WAS THE CASE THIS WEEKEND, NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
- ALTHOUGH THIS TIME THAT WILL BE DUE NO TO THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT BUT INSTEAD THE LARGE SCALE SINKING
MOTION OVER THE AREA FROM THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
THAT MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO BLDU.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING OF BLDU, AND HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GET. NEVERTHELESS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF BLDU FOR ALL SITES. GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
VEER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A
FRONT. GUSTS BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WINDS, STRONGER SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE STRONG 20-FT WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH ACCOMPANYING MIN RH
BELOW CRITICAL 15% FOLLOWING POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY, DRY FUELS
CHARACTERIZED BY ERCS NEAR OR IN THE 70TH TO 89TH PERCENTILE
RANGE, AND TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL RESULT IN RFTIS AREAWIDE AT LEAST 6-8.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING, AND CRITICAL TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY TONIGHT WITH
DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS, LOW FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN
RETURN TO THE AREA. PERSISTENT COOL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WARMING TREND BEGINNING
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE MIN RH REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL
15% AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE, LIGHT 20-FT WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK/BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 83 30 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 84 33 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 93 38 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 86 34 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 75 30 52 37 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 78 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 79 25 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 32 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 82 32 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 83 32 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-
CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-
MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-
REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CRANE-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN
CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA
PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN
LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page