957
FXUS64 KMAF 152242
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A POTENT COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY MORNING.
- FOLLOWING NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT,
A SHARP WARMING TREND OCCURS FOR THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE N/NE BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO
LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. A WALL OF DUST ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED VISIBILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A VERY LOCALIZED WIND GUST TO 67 MPH
RECORDED AT MAF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, SO THE WIND ADVISORY AND BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT UNTIL 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT).
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, SO A HIGH WIND
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 4 AM CDT. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH A FREEZE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL TREND MUCH
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALSO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A RAPID WARMING TREND
TUESDAY-SATURDAY. RECORD HEAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE
90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LATEST MESOANALYSIS/SURFACE OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT
THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS. GUSTY AND DUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDOWN, YIELDING MVFR VISBYS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THE VEER TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY, WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15%, DRY FUELS CHARACTERIZED BY ERCS NEAR OR
IN THE 70TH TO 89TH PERCENTILE, WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
AND 20-FT WINDS ABOVE 20 MILES PER HOUR WILL MAINTAIN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE SHIFTING
NORTHERLY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RH MAY BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND LOWER TRANS PECOS ON TUESDAY. A SHARP WARMING TREND OCCURS MID
TO LATE WEEK, BUT LIGHT 20-FT WINDS KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 30 52 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 34 54 32 79 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 38 57 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 35 55 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 30 50 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 27 51 29 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 25 54 26 72 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 32 52 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 32 52 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 32 53 31 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS
BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-
DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-
GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-
MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-
UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-
BORDEN-CRANE-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-
SCURRY-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
LEA-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99
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