355
FXUS64 KMAF 160518
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY MORNING.
- FOLLOWING NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT,
A SHARP WARMING TREND OCCURS FOR THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE N/NE BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO
LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. A WALL OF DUST ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED VISIBILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A VERY LOCALIZED WIND GUST TO 67 MPH
RECORDED AT MAF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, SO THE WIND ADVISORY AND BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT UNTIL 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT).
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, SO A HIGH WIND
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 4 AM CDT. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH A FREEZE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL TREND MUCH
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALSO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A RAPID WARMING TREND
TUESDAY-SATURDAY. RECORD HEAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE
90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. BREEZY (15-20 KTS SUSTAINED) NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR MOST TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS LOOK TO
OCCUR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BY 12Z, WINDS BECOME MUCH LIGHTER
AND VEER SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 52 32 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 54 32 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 57 36 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 55 37 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 50 36 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 51 29 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 54 26 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 52 34 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 52 34 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 53 31 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...11
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