719
FXUS64 KMAF 161106
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- FOLLOWING COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT, A SHARP WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- EXTREME EARLY SEASON HEAT CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY LATE THIS
WEEK AND PEAKS THIS WEEKEND, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHS ABOVE 90F
AND LOWS ABOVE 50F. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP
WINDS MAY PERSIST AT GUADALUPE PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT USHERS COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT, COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
ONCE AGAIN THANKS TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROMOTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO SPAN IN THE MID 20S AND 30S REGIONWIDE. TUESDAY,
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS PROVIDING MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR MANY SPOTS WITH AREAS ALONG THE TRANS
PECOS IN THE LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD. SEE THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS!
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER
THE DESERT SW BUILDING EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH LEE
TROUGHING FROM THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX INTO SE NM
PLAINS MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ACCOMPANYING LARGE
SCALE SINKING MOTION AND WAA WILL ALLOW RETURN OF WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK DESPITE LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY
NIGHT, LOWS FALL FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F EARLY EVENING INTO
THE 50S F AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY (45% TO 60%) OF LOWS
FALLING BELOW 40F FOR NORTHEAST LEA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF THE MARFA PLATEAU BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS RISE BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S F MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE 70S F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
LOWER TO MID 80S F, UPPER 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND LOWER 90S
FROM PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER RIDGING IN NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY
TABLES IS CHARACTERIZED BY GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ANOMALIES 3 TO 3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES ALSO 3 TO 3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ANOMALOUS STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR A FASTER WARM-UP
THAN TUESDAY BY LATE AFTERNOON, DESPITE THE LIGHT TO BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOLLOWING LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S F RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S F WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND SE NM PLAINS AND 30S TO 40S F
FARTHER EAST MAINTAIN EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT COOLING WHEN PAIRED WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS, EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S F,
MID TO UPPER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND MID TO UPPER 90S F
PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND, AND LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S F RANGE WITH EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S F
SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS.
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING MAINTAINS ITS GRIP FRIDAY AS
EFI/SOT VALUES HIGHEST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IMPINGE ON
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND SE NM PLAINS, WHILE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S F AND ALLOW FOR A RAPID
WARM-UP TO MID 90S F, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
AND UPPER 90S F TO TRIPLE DIGITS FROM PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG
BEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RESEMBLE MID TO LATE MAY IF NOT EARLY JUNE
THAN MID TO LATE MARCH. PERHAPS UNCANNILY, THIS WILL BE EVEN MORE
REINFORCED BY THE LIGHT WINDS TYPICAL OF THE DEATH RIDGE PATTERN
SETTING IN DURING THAT TIME OF YEAR. LOW DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BELOW 45F STILL MAINTAINS AT
LEAST A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE, WITH LOWS LARGELY ABOVE 45F
AND BELOW 65F. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SIMILAR HIGHS TO FRIDAY
FOR SATURDAY, IF NOT EVEN WARMER AND MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY
JUNE GIVEN HOW MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE 90S F, WITH
TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, PARTS OF THE PECOS RIVER, AND
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN INDICATED IN NBM FORECAST GRIDS!
RIDGING TAKES TIME TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT IT
WILL MARK THE START OF A COOLING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE GEOPOTENTIAL ANOMALIES AND TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DOWN TO THE 2.5 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS RANGE SUNDAY
AND 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS RANGE BY NEXT MONDAY AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND
LOWER AMPLITUDE. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A COOLING TREND
ALLOWS HIGHS TO DECREASE BY UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
ON SUNDAY, AND AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
NEXT MONDAY. DUE TO LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION FROM THE RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, NO RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE SUMMER-
TIME LIKE DAYTIME HEAT. GIVEN THAT IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST A FEW
MONTHS SINCE THE LAST TIME WE EXPERIENCED SUCH WIDESPREAD 90F-95F+
HEAT, TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS FOR DEALING WITH THE EARLY SEASON
HEAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS (5-10 KTS) ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CNM
WHERE BRIEF OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS MAY OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 51 32 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 54 31 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 57 36 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 54 36 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 51 35 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 51 28 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 54 24 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 51 33 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 51 34 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 52 31 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11
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