104
FXUS64 KMAF 170504
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH READINGS
FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
- A SHARP WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HEAT LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STRONG COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS
ALSO LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION. TEMPERATURES AS OF NOON CDT ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA, AFTERNOON MAXIMA MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE
PERMIAN BASIN, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH OUR AREA STILL REMAINING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL RIDGING, WE EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SINCE OUR AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE DATE IS MARCH 27TH WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR
OUR AREA. WE HAVE BEEN UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR QUITE A WHILE, SO THOSE
THAT MAY HAVE PETS OR TENDER VEGETATION OUTDOORS IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOCATIONS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROVIDE A WARM PLACE
TONIGHT.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER TO OUR
EAST ON TUESDAY WHILE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER OVER THE AREA ALONG THIS FEATURE,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES, EXCEPT FOR
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN/
EASTERN LOWER TRANS PECOS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TREND WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MID 40S FOR MOST, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN
CWA AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND REMAIN ORIENTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO EXTEND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE MARCH.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY WILL TREND MUCH WARMER INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST BY LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BREAKING ABOVE 100
DEGREES. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE CHALLENGED OR
BROKEN EACH DAY THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
MARCH AT MIDLAND IS 97 DEGREES SET ON 3/31/1946, AND THERE APPEARS
TO BE A CHANCE TO AT LEAST TIE THIS NUMBER FRIDAY-SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH A FEW OVERNIGHT READINGS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THIS WEEKEND.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS (MAF):
MARCH 19TH: 90 DEGREES (2017)
MARCH 20TH: 94 DEGREES (2017)
MARCH 21ST: 96 DEGREES (2017)
MARCH 22ND: 91 DEGREES (2018)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
DEVELOPING 17Z-22Z, CONTINUING UNTIL DECREASING BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS
01Z-05Z. BREEZIEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS OVER THE STOCKTON
PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AS WELL AS WESTERN
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 42 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 80 47 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 72 42 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 79 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 74 40 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 71 37 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 43 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 44 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 76 42 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94
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